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The Slim Pickings: Which Weight-Loss Drug Stocks Are Worth Your Money?

Wesley ParkFriday, Apr 18, 2025 7:09 pm ET

19min read

The weight-loss drug market is blowing up, and investors are scrambling to find the next big winner. With obesity rates soaring and regulators green-lighting breakthrough therapies, this sector is a goldmine—if you pick the right stocks. Let’s dissect the data and figure out which companies are primed to dominate.

The Big Three in the Weight-Loss Wars

Three drugs are leading the charge: CagriSema (Novo Nordisk), Retatrutide (Eli Lilly), and Survodutide (Boehringer Ingelheim). Their recent trial results offer clues about which stocks could surge.

1. Novo Nordisk: The Giant with Mixed Results

Novo’s CagriSema made headlines in early 2025 with its phase 3 trials. In patients without diabetes, it delivered a 22.7% weight loss—a staggering number. But here’s the catch: in diabetics, the results were lackluster, with just 15.7% weight loss. Investors panicked, sending Novo’s stock down 10% in a single day.

While CagriSema’s non-diabetic success ensures it’ll hit the market soon, its underwhelming diabetes data limits its upside. Novo’s existing blockbuster Wegovy (semaglutide) is still king, but competition is heating up.

Verdict: Hold for now. It’s a leader, but don’t overpay.

2. Eli Lilly: The Sleeper with 24% Power

Eli’s Retatrutide hasn’t completed its phase 3 trials yet, but its phase 2 data is jaw-dropping: 24.2% weight loss at the highest dose—beating CagriSema’s record. If phase 3 confirms this, Retatrutide could become the new gold standard.

Lilly also has Zepbound (tirzepatide), already approved and raking in billions. Retatrutide’s triple-agonist mechanism (GLP-1, GIP, glucagon) could give it an edge in metabolic benefits, like reducing liver fat.

Verdict: Buy! This is a moonshot stock if the data pans out.

3. Boehringer Ingelheim: The Dark Horse in MASH

Survodutide, from Germany’s Boehringer, is targeting a niche: metabolic steatohepatitis (MASH). In phase 2 trials, 83% of patients saw MASH resolution, with visceral fat dropping by 28.3%. If its phase 3 trial (ending in late 2025) hits targets, this could carve out a $5 billion market.

The downside? It’s a smaller player in a crowded space. Still, with MASH affecting 25% of Americans, this is a smart bet for long-term growth.

Verdict: Buy on dips. A phase 3 win could double its stock.

The Bottom Line: Buy the Leader, Back the Sleeper

The weight-loss drug race is a multi-billion-dollar game. Here’s how to play it:

Eli Lilly (LLY): Retatrutide’s phase 3 results (due mid-2026) could make this a 2027 winner. Back it now while the price is low.
Novo Nordisk (NVO): Own it for its cash cow (Wegovy), but don’t expect miracles from CagriSema alone.
Boehringer Ingelheim: Invest in its U.S. stock (OTC: BIRYY) or ETFs with exposure—its MASH focus is a unique angle.

Avoid Pfizer (PFE) and Amgen (AMGN)—their drugs (danuglipron, MariTide) lag in efficacy or face delays.

The key metric is weight-loss percentage. Retatrutide’s 24% edge over CagriSema’s 22.7% is no small thing. In this sector, fractions of a percent can mean billions.

Final Call: Go all in on Eli Lilly. It’s got the highest upside, and if Retatrutide delivers, this stock could be the next Ozempic—a household name with a stratospheric price tag. But keep an eye on Survodutide’s phase 3 results in December 2025—a win there could make Boehringer a sleeper hit.

This isn’t just about losing weight—it’s about losing your hesitation to invest in the next big thing.

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