Skyworks Solutions Outlook - A Deep-Dive Into the Bearish Signals and Market Mood

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) faces a bearish technical outlook with no bullish signals in the last five days and a weak overall trend suggesting investors should avoid the stock for now. The internal diagnostic score for technical analysis is 1.02, indicating a poor technical setup.

News Highlights

Recent developments in the semiconductor sector are shaping the landscape for Skyworks Solutions:

• McKinsey analysis on US tariffs raises concerns about the long-term stability of chip supply chains. While not specific to Skyworks, it highlights broader sector vulnerability.
• Japan's proposal for rare earths and semiconductor cooperation with the US could create new supply chain dynamics. These could affect Skyworks' manufacturing and sourcing strategies in the long run.
• $750M outflow from the US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) in May 2025 shows investor unease in the sector, potentially impacting Skyworks as a component of the ETF. The semiconductor sector appears to be under pressure from shifting market preferences.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The consensus from analysts is mixed and cautious:

• Simple average rating: 2.33
• Performance-weighted rating: 1.17
• Ratings are not aligned — there are three active analysts with recent ratings of "Neutral" and "Strong Sell".
• Price trend (down -0.20%) aligns with the bearish sentiment, but the dispersion of views suggests no strong consensus on future direction.

Key Fundamentals and Their Scores

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): -93.20% — internal diagnostic score is 3. A sharp decline in cash flow signals weak operations.
• EV/EBIT ratio: 108.80 — internal diagnostic score is 1. This elevated ratio suggests overvaluation relative to earnings.
• Cash-to-market cap ratio: 0.33% — internal diagnostic score is 2. Low cash balance relative to market value points to financial vulnerability.
• Interest coverage ratio: 22.53% — internal diagnostic score is 1. While the company can cover its interest expenses, the low score indicates limited financial flexibility.

Money-Flow Trends

Investor behavior shows a mixed picture of inflows and outflows:

• Overall fund-flow score: 7.84 (good), suggesting positive sentiment at the sector level.
• Block investors (large and extra-large) are net positive, with inflow ratios of 0.59 and 0.60 respectively, indicating institutional confidence.
• Retail and small investors are also showing inflows, with ratios of 0.51 and 0.50. However, the medium-sized flows are negative, which might signal caution from mid-tier institutional investors.

Key Technical Signals

The technical picture for Skyworks Solutions is overwhelmingly bearish:

• MACD Death Cross — internal diagnostic score is 1, indicating a strong bearish signal with a historical average return of -4.28% and only 12.5% win rate.
• Ex-Dividend Date — internal diagnostic score is 1. This historically correlates with a -1.73% return and 25% win rate, reinforcing the bearish trend.
• Hanging Man pattern — internal diagnostic score is 1, a classic top-reversal signal with an average return of -1.63% and zero win rate in historical data.
• Dividend Payable and Record Dates — both scored 1 and 1.11, showing continued weakness around the dividend cycle.
• Bullish Engulfing — internal diagnostic score is 1, but it failed to trigger a reversal, instead confirming bearish momentum.
• Recent indicator dates:
  • 2025-09-08 — Hanging Man
  • 2025-09-02 — MACD Death Cross
  • 2025-09-16 — Dividend Payable

Conclusion

With 6 bearish signals out of 6 analyzed indicators and no positive ones, Skyworks Solutions is under strong technical pressure. The internal diagnostic technical score of 1.02 and weak analyst consensus further underscore the risk. While institutional money flows show some optimism, the fundamentals are deteriorating in key areas. Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer turnaround in technical and fundamental indicators before entering a position in SWKS.