SKLUSDT Market Overview: Weakness Deepens on Elevated Volatility and Divergence

• SKLUSDT declines 4.8% in 24 hours amid a bearish reversal pattern at key resistance
• Volume surges during late-ET selloff, confirming downside momentum and divergence
• RSI near overbought territory fails to confirm rally, hinting at waning bullish conviction
• Bollinger Bands widen as price breaks lower, reflecting increasing bearish volatility
• Fibonacci 61.8% support at 0.01766 holds temporarily but risks breakdown on renewed selling

SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) opened at $0.01774 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.01815 by 00:00 ET on 2025-11-03, and closed at $0.01694 by 12:00 ET the same day. The pair fell to a low of $0.01671 during the session, marking a 4.8% decline over 24 hours. Total volume traded was 339,051,795 SKL, while notional turnover came in at $5,699,770. The sharp reversal at the 0.01806 level on a large-volume bearish engulfing candle indicates potential bearish exhaustion near former resistance.

The price action shows a breakdown below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, signaling a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period daily SMA remains above current levels, but the 200-period line appears to be acting as a descending resistance. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, with the price trading near the lower band, reinforcing the volatility breakout.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 15-minute chart pushed into overbought territory briefly before the breakdown, suggesting a lack of conviction in bullish momentum. Momentum diverged with price during the afternoon ET sell-off, with RSI failing to make higher highs despite a late rebound. MACD crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence, confirming the potential for a deeper correction.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.01671–0.01815 swing show the 61.8% level at 0.01766 currently acting as a key short-term support. If this level fails, the next target would be the 78.6% retracement at 0.01744. On the daily chart, the 0.01740 level remains critical; a break below could trigger a retest of 0.01700. Candlestick formations, including bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow doji, suggest that sellers are gaining control.

The volume profile reveals a sharp spike in selling pressure between 19:00 and 21:00 ET on 2025-11-02, coinciding with the breakdown of the 0.01806 level. Notional turnover surged from $210k to over $1.1m during this period, confirming the bearish shift in sentiment. While volume has remained elevated after the breakdown, it has not surged at key support levels, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest. This divergence may prolong the bearish trend unless a clear reversal pattern emerges.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish signals from the engulfing pattern and divergent momentum indicators, a short-term strategy targeting the bearish reversal at the 0.01806 level could be tested. A practical approach would involve shorting SKLUSDT on confirmation of a bearish engulfing candle and exiting after a fixed 5-day holding period or on a stop-loss at 0.01830. Since the data interface currently does not support automated pattern detection for this symbol, manual confirmation dates would be needed to run the backtest. Alternatively, adjusting the symbol to a supported market could allow for fully automated pattern scanning and strategy testing.