Skanska's Strategic Expansion in U.S. Infrastructure: A Boon for Long-Term Shareholder Value?

The U.S. infrastructure sector is undergoing a transformation, driven by aging systems, climate resilience demands, and a surge in federal funding. At the forefront of this shift is Skanska AB, the Swedish construction giant, which has aggressively expanded its U.S. footprint through a portfolio of high-value, strategically aligned projects. With contracts totaling over $3.8 billion in the past year alone, Skanska's investments in rail, bridges, airports, and renewable energy infrastructure reflect a deep understanding of both market dynamics and policy tailwinds. But how does this expansion translate to long-term shareholder value?

Aligning with Federal Priorities: The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law as a Catalyst

Skanska's U.S. projects are not just large in scale—they are meticulously aligned with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), which allocated $1.2 trillion for infrastructure modernization. The Long Bridge North Project, a $1-billion rail modernization initiative in Virginia, exemplifies this alignment. Funded in part by a $729 million grant from the Federal Railroad Administration, the project replaces a century-old two-track rail corridor with a four-track system, separating freight and passenger traffic. This directly addresses BIL priorities: reducing congestion, enhancing regional connectivity, and supporting economic growth.

The project's design-build model, a core strength of Skanska, ensures efficiency and cost predictability—key requirements under BIL's emphasis on public-private partnerships. By 2030, the project is expected to benefit 4.5 million VRE commuters and 1.3 million Amtrak riders, while also cutting freight logistics costs for operators like CSX. Such outcomes not only align with federal goals but also position Skanska as a trusted partner in executing complex, high-impact infrastructure.

Beyond rail, Skanska's Portsmouth Marine Terminal redevelopment in Virginia supports the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project, a $2.7 billion renewable energy initiative. This aligns with BIL's focus on clean energy and decarbonization, with the terminal expected to power 660,000 homes once operational. Similarly, the firm's work on wastewater treatment plants and airport expansions underscores its diversification into sectors prioritized by the BIL, including environmental sustainability and multimodal transportation.

Financial Implications: EBITDA Growth and Stock Performance

While Skanska's U.S. expansion is strategically sound, investors must weigh its financial implications. EBITDA growth has shown mixed trends in recent years. For the fiscal year ending December 2024, EBITDA per share declined by 6.37% YoY, reflecting broader industry challenges such as inflation and supply chain bottlenecks. However, by June 2025, the firm's EBITDA margin had stabilized at 5.82%, up from 5.47% in 2024, indicating improved cost management.

The firm's stock performance has mirrored this volatility. Between 2023 and 2025, earnings per share (EPS) fell from €22.46 to €18.62, while cash flow per share rebounded to €25.9 by 2025. Dividends, however, have trended upward, rising from €6.5 to €9.225 per share, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns despite operational headwinds.

The key to Skanska's long-term value lies in its ability to leverage BIL funding for margin-boosting projects. The Long Bridge Project, for instance, is expected to generate steady revenue through 2030, insulating the firm from short-term economic cycles. Additionally, its joint venture model—seen in partnerships with Flatiron and Hoffman Construction—reduces financial risk and enhances profitability.

Strategic Positioning in a $2.7 Trillion Market

The U.S. infrastructure market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.2% through 2030, driven by BIL funding and private-sector demand. Skanska's diversified portfolio—spanning rail, airports, energy, and urban transit—positions it to capture a significant share of this growth. Its expertise in progressive design-build delivery and ESG-aligned projects further differentiates it from competitors.

However, risks remain. Labor shortages and material cost fluctuations could pressure margins, particularly for projects with long timelines like the Long Bridge. Investors should monitor Skanska's ability to pass on cost increases to clients and maintain its EBITDA margin above 5%.

Investment Thesis: A Buy for the Long-Term

For investors with a 5–10 year horizon, Skanska presents a compelling case. Its U.S. projects are not only aligned with federal priorities but also designed to deliver steady cash flows and capital appreciation as infrastructure spending accelerates. The firm's focus on high-margin, long-term contracts—such as the 5-year Pulaski Skyway rehabilitation in New Jersey—provides visibility into future earnings.

While near-term EBITDA growth may remain uneven, the firm's strategic alignment with the BIL and its track record in executing complex projects suggest a path to sustainable value creation. Investors should consider entering positions at current levels, with a target price based on a 10x EBITDA multiple and projected 2026 earnings.

In conclusion, Skanska's U.S. expansion is more than a geographic play—it's a calculated bet on the future of American infrastructure. For those willing to ride out short-term volatility, the rewards could be substantial.