Singapore's Luxury Condo Market: A Contrarian's Oasis in a Slowing Landscape

The Singapore luxury condo market, often perceived as a barometer of global wealth concentration, faces headwinds in 2025. Yet beneath the surface of moderating price growth and declining transaction volumes, a compelling opportunity emerges for contrarian investors. While the broader residential market's 0.5% quarterly price rise—a slowdown from 0.8% in early 2025—has fueled talk of a cooldown, the Core Central Region (CCR) remains an island of resilience. Non-landed CCR prices surged 2.3% in the second quarter, a stark contrast to the 1.1% drop in the Rest of Central Region (RCR). This divergence hints at a market where selective demand, scarcity, and shifting buyer priorities are creating asymmetric value opportunities.

The Contradiction: Softness in the Broad Market, Strength in the Luxury Segment
The headline figures suggest a slowing market. Overall transaction volumes fell by 40% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, with new private home sales plunging 66.5% to 1,129 units. Yet this decline masks a critical divide: the luxury segment—defined as units priced above $5 million—has maintained momentum. Through June 2025, 154 luxury transactions occurred, including 26 ultra-luxury deals ($10 million+), underscoring enduring demand for prime assets.

The key driver? Scarcity. Only 78 new CCR units were launched in Q1 2025, and upcoming projects like W Residences–Marina View and The Robertson Opus are expected to fuel further interest. With Singapore's central core nearing full development, the supply of freehold, prime CCR units will only shrink, making existing stock increasingly valuable.

Why the Contrarian Bet Makes Sense
1. Stabilized Valuations Offer Entry Points: The moderation in overall price growth (from 0.8% to 0.5% quarterly) and the Q2 2025 dip in transaction volumes create a buyers' window. While prices in the CCR have risen, they remain below the pre-2023 peak in many projects, offering a chance to acquire assets at a “discount” to their speculative zenith.

1. Local Buyers Anchor Demand: Foreign buyers, once the lifeblood of luxury sales, have retreated due to the 2023 Asset Enhancement Scheme (AES) hikes, which raised Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) to 60% for non-residents. This has shifted demand toward local ultra-high-net-worth individuals and permanent residents, who prioritize long-term wealth preservation over short-term speculation. In Q1 2025, eight of 17 ultra-luxury sales were to PRs, signaling a more stable demand base.

2. Sustainability and Quality Drive Premiums: Buyers today are less focused on size than on quality. Projects like 21 Anderson—a freehold, 24-unit development with cutting-edge sustainability features—sold five units in Q2 at $4,811 psf, outpacing the average. Investors should prioritize developments with energy-efficient designs, green certifications, and prime locations, as these will command premiums in an ESG-conscious world.

3. Safe-Haven Appeal in a Volatile World: Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty have reinforced Singapore's status as a geopolitical and financial haven. For global elites, owning a luxury condo in the CCR is less about yield and more about holding a tangible asset in a secure, rule-based jurisdiction.

Risks and Considerations
The contrarian play isn't without risks. A prolonged global recession or a further drop in transaction volumes could test even the most robust assets. The URA's final Q2 2025 data, due July 25, will clarify whether the CCR's 2.3% price rise holds or reverses. Additionally, rising inventory in non-luxury segments could spill over into premium markets.

Investors should also factor in liquidity constraints: high-end condos are harder to resell quickly than mainstream properties. A long-term horizon—5–10 years—is essential.

Investment Strategy: Target Prime, Sustainable, and Scarcity-Driven Assets
- Focus on Freehold Developments: Projects like Skywaters Residences, which sold a $30.87 million unit in Q2, exemplify the enduring appeal of freehold tenure and prime waterfront locations.
- Look for Sustainable Features: Buildings with green certifications (e.g., BCA Green Mark Platinum) or net-zero aspirations will attract buyers prioritizing environmental responsibility.
- Monitor New Launches: The H2 2025 pipeline includes W Residences–Marina View (a 102-unit project with prices starting at $3,000 psf) and The Robertson Opus, which could offer entry points into prime areas at stabilized valuations.

Conclusion: A Steadfast Bet on Scarcity and Stability
The luxury condo market's apparent slowdown is a mirage. Beneath it lies a segment insulated by scarcity, local demand, and the unshakable allure of Singapore's core. For investors willing to look past the headline numbers, the CCR offers a rare chance to acquire world-class real estate at stabilized prices in one of Asia's most secure markets. The contrarian's edge here is clear: buy now, before the next cycle lifts these assets higher.