Singapore's Housing Story: A Resilient Dream or a Narrative in Need of a New Chapter?

The story of Singapore's housing market in 2025 was one of defiant resilience. Against a backdrop of persistent government cooling measures, new private home sales hit a four-year high, with 10,821 units sold-a 67.3% increase year on year from 2024. This surge, which topped the 2021 pandemic peak, was the core of the prevailing narrative: demand was simply too strong for policy to quell.

The script, however, was written with a twist. The boom was not a steady climb but a powerful finish. The market's annual volume was driven by a late-year surge, with sales in November and December still robust. Yet, even in the typically slow holiday month of December, the market showed its nerve. Developers sold 197 new private homes, a figure that, while down from November, still represented a solid monthly pace and more than double the units launched compared to the same month the year before. This performance in a traditionally quiet period underscored the strength of the underlying belief system.

The government's tools, including some of the world's highest stamp duties and a new Seller Stamp Duty aimed at curbing speculation, appear to have delivered diminishing returns. The measures were introduced to dampen the boom, but they failed to make a "big dent in buyer interest." The resilience was fueled by locals and wealthy immigrants, supported by lower borrowing costs. In other words, the policy headwinds were present, but the market's story-of a secure, high-value asset in a stable city-state-proved more compelling.

The bottom line is that the 2025 narrative was a powerful one. It was a story of a market that not only survived but thrived despite the script. The record sales volume and the December performance suggest the dream of Singapore property as a safe haven and wealth preserver remains firmly intact. For now, the story is strong.

The Price-Volume Disconnect: A Story of Segmented Dreams

The market's grand narrative of universal strength is showing its first major cracks. While sales volumes tell a story of record-breaking demand, the price data reveals a more segmented and fragile dream. The full-year price increase of 3.4 per cent was the weakest pace since 2020, a clear signal that the easy money is running out. The story has split into two distinct chapters.

The first chapter belongs to landed property. Here, the dream remains vivid. Prices for landed homes surged 7.7 per cent for the year, driven by a powerful acceleration in the final quarter. This segment is where the narrative of scarcity and exclusivity still holds sway, with buyers willing to pay a premium for space and privacy. The second chapter, however, is one of softening. Non-landed prices, which include the vast majority of new condo launches, rose a mere 2.4 per cent over the year. More critically, they slipped 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, dragged down by a sharp 3.2 per cent drop in prime condominiums in the Core Central Region.

This divergence is the market's first real narrative violation. It shows that the belief system driving the boom is not uniform. The sales surge was powered by a crowded new-launch calendar, but the price action suggests buyers are becoming selective. The data points to a fundamental shift in buyer psychology. In the Core Central Region, the epicenter of luxury demand, the price gap between new and resale units is creating a powerful incentive to wait. As one analyst noted, new launch units spanning over 2,500 square feet in prime areas had a median price of S$4,692 psf, while resale units with the same parameters had a median price of S$2,182 psf. That's a premium of more than double. Discerning buyers, facing a thinner pipeline of new projects, are finding more affordable opportunities in the resale market, which saw its highest tally in four years.

The bottom line is that the unified story of a resilient, price-rising market is breaking down. The dream for landed property is intact, but the condo dream is under pressure. This isn't a sign of collapse, but a necessary correction that reveals where the market's true vulnerabilities lie. The narrative now hinges on whether this price softening in the core is a temporary fluctuation or the start of a longer trend that could cool the broader market.

The 2026 Catalysts: Can the Dream Be Extended?

The powerful 2025 narrative now faces its most critical test. The story of unstoppable demand is about to collide with two powerful forces: the end of easy money and the government's patience. The sustainability of the dream hinges on whether local and wealthy immigrant buyers can outlast these headwinds.

The primary catalyst for change is the tapering of interest rate cuts. Lower borrowing costs were a key fuel for the 2025 boom, and analysts expect this tailwind to moderate. As a result, sales volumes are projected to cool significantly. CBRE forecasts 7,500 to 8,500 new units for 2026, while Knight Frank sees a slightly wider range of 8,000 to 10,000. This represents a clear deceleration from the record 10,821 units sold last year. The market's momentum is shifting from a powerful surge to a more measured climb.

Yet the bigger risk to the narrative is policy. The government has intervened at least 15 times since 2009 to cool the market, but prices have kept hitting new highs. This persistent resilience is now testing the authorities' tolerance. With prices in historically cheap suburban areas seeing 40-60 per cent gains over the past decade, the cooling measures are delivering diminishing returns. The government's patience is not infinite, and with sales volumes already at record levels and prices rising, further measures are a distinct possibility. The market's story is now in a delicate balance between buyer belief and policy restraint.

The bottom line is that the dream's extension is not guaranteed. The narrative's strength in 2025 was built on a powerful belief system that overcame policy and low rates. For 2026, that belief must prove durable against a fading rate tailwind and the looming threat of more aggressive cooling. The market will keep testing the government's tolerance, but without interventions, things would be a lot more volatile. The coming year will reveal whether the story of Singapore property as an unshakeable safe haven can be extended, or if it needs a new chapter.