Simon Property Group Outlook - Technical Weakness Overshadows Mixed Fundamentals and Analyst Opinions

1. Market Snapshot

Simon Property Group (SPG.N) is showing a modest price increase of 0.59% in recent days, but technical indicators are overwhelmingly bearish with an internal diagnostic score of 1.68. This mismatch between price action and technical signals suggests caution for investors.

2. News Highlights

• U.S. Vaccine Policy Changes (May 29): New guidelines by the Health and Human Services department could indirectly affect retail real estate demand if they alter public behavior or economic stability.
• Utah Uranium Mine Fast-Tracked (May 31): While not directly related to SPG, this move by Trump’s administration reflects broader industrial policy shifts that might influence investor sentiment toward economic sectors like real estate.
• Ethereum and Solana ETF Filings (May 31): These filings signal growing institutional interest in crypto, which could draw capital away from traditional real estate equities like SPG.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided, with a simple average rating of 3.50 and a performance-weighted average of 1.88. Only one analyst (Argus Research’s Marie Ferguson) gave a “Strong Buy” rating, while the rest issued “Neutral” ratings. This reflects a generally cautious outlook, especially given Marie Ferguson’s historically poor performance (0.0% win rate, -1.66% average return).

The fundamental model score is 3.75 based on key factors:

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit (%): 86.47%
• Total assets growth rate: 2.75%
• Days sales outstanding: 118 days
• Current liabilities / Total liabilities (%): 49.65%
• Gross profit margin (GPM): 21.66%
• Profit-MV: -52.20%
• PE ratio: 78.48
• GMAR: 22.26%
• Equity multiplier (DuPont analysis %): 121.82%
• Current ratio: 18.77

While some metrics like profit margin and total assets growth are strong, the high Profit-MV and PE ratio suggest valuation risks. The internal diagnostic scores for these factors range from 1 to 3, indicating that the fundamentals are mixed.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Despite a modest price increase, money-flow trends are negative overall. The fund-flow score is 7.52, which is considered “good.” However, the inflow ratios for all categories—large, small, and extra-large—hover around 50%, signaling a lack of strong directional momentum. Retail and institutional investors are both showing reluctance to commit, with block trades also trending negatively. This may reflect broader uncertainty in the real estate sector amid economic and policy volatility.

5. Key Technical Signals

The technical indicators for SPG.N are heavily bearish. The internal diagnostic score is 1.68, and the top signals include:

• Ex-Dividend Date: Internal diagnostic score of 1 — historically associated with poor returns (-1.43%) and zero win rate.
• RSI Overbought: Score of 1 — indicating a strong risk of pullback with a historical win rate of 28.57%.
• Dividend Record Date: Also scored 1 — with similarly weak performance.

Key chart events over the last five days include multiple instances of WR Overbought and RSI Overbought signals, particularly on August 28, 2025, and September 9, 2025. The key insights from the model suggest weak momentum and a high risk of further decline.

6. Conclusion

While SPG.N is trading higher in the short term, the technical setup is weak, with 4 bearish indicators and no bullish ones in the past five days. The fundamental model shows mixed signals, and analyst ratings are scattered, with only one strong buy and the rest neutral. The recent negative money-flow trends add to the caution. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend or additional catalysts before entering new positions.