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Silver Breaks Through Historic Ceiling
For the first time ever, silver has crossed the $50 mark, briefly hitting $51.24 per ounce on Thursday and breaking through its previous highs from 1980 ($49.50) and 2011 ($49.80).
The rally crowns a spectacular year for the metal. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) — the largest silver ETF in the U.S., with about $24 billion in assets — has now gained more than 70% year to date, outpacing most equity sectors and nearly every other commodity except gold.
Gold, too, is on a tear. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF is up 53% in 2025, following gold’s own milestone move above $4,000 per ounce earlier this week.
The Macro Drivers Behind the Surge
Silver’s surge is part of a broader wave lifting precious metals, fueled by the same mix of powerful macro forces:
- A weaker U.S. dollar and surging government debt
- Persistent inflation and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence
- Heightened geopolitical risk, from trade tensions to military conflicts
While gold has led the charge, investors are now betting that silver — traditionally the “cheaper cousin” — could play catch-up, especially as industrial demand remains strong.
The gold-to-silver ratio—a measure of relative value—has dropped to around 80, its lowest point in a year but still far from the 32 seen during silver’s last major boom in 2011.
ETF Flows Accelerate
Investor enthusiasm is showing up in ETF data. So far this year, about $2 billion has flowed into U.S.-listed silver ETFs, including $1.4 billion into SLV and $650 million into the abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR).
That’s small next to the $36 billion that has flooded into gold ETFs such as GLD and IAU, but silver’s smaller market means those inflows carry far more weight.
According to the Silver Institute, global demand is on track to hit 1.15 billion ounces in 2025 — worth roughly $57.5 billion at current prices. By contrast, gold demand is worth more than $640 billion, making its market about 13 times larger.
A Smaller Market, Bigger Ripples
Because silver’s market is relatively compact, even modest ETF inflows can dramatically affect price dynamics. Nearly two-thirds of silver demand this year comes from industrial applications — such as electronics, solar panels, and medical technology — with jewelry and physical investment each accounting for around 17%.
That structure gives silver a dual role: part safe haven, part growth play tied to clean energy and tech manufacturing.
While total ETF holdings have declined over the past few years, the $2 billion surge in 2025 marks a meaningful shift. For a metal with annual investment demand of roughly 40 million ounces, these inflows are enough to noticeably move the market.
Still Below Its Inflation-Adjusted Peak
Despite setting a new nominal record, silver remains far from its inflation-adjusted high. In real terms, the 1980 peak would equate to well over $200 per ounce today.
That means silver’s rally may still have room to run — but also that volatility could stay high. Whether this proves to be a sustained breakout or another short-lived squeeze will depend on whether inflation, industrial demand, and investor momentum can all stay aligned in the months ahead.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Precious metal investments are volatile and may not suit all investors. Always review your objectives and risk tolerance before investing.
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