Sign/Tether USDt Market Overview: Volatility, Correction, and Divergence in a 24-Hour Cycle

• Price tested a key resistance near 0.0737, failed to break it, and reversed lower into the session close.
• RSI showed overbought conditions mid-session but turned neutral as the pair corrected.
• Volume spiked during the early morning surge but faded during the pullback, suggesting weakening momentum.
• Price remained within a narrowing Bollinger Band, signaling potential for a breakout or breakdown.
• A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern was followed by a bearish counterpart, signaling shifting sentiment.

Sign/Tether USDt (SIGNUSDT) opened at 0.07244 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0729 on 2025-09-06 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 0.0737 and low of 0.07131. Total volume reached 11,184,099.0 and notional turnover amounted to 799.33 USD equivalent, highlighting moderate activity with sharp intraday swings.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple key patterns over the 24-hour period, most notably a bullish engulfing pattern early in the session and a bearish counterpart in the late morning. These patterns, coupled with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.0729, suggest a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Resistance at 0.0737 held firm in the morning, and a test of support at 0.07191 failed to trigger a rebound, hinting at potential for further downside if the next support at 0.07131 is breached.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged near the end of the session, with the 20 SMA crossing above the 50 SMA in the early morning before retreating. This short-lived bullish crossover may signal a temporary buying interest but lacks confirmation from volume. The 50-period daily moving average currently sits around 0.0725, and price has oscillated above and below it, indicating a lack of clear trend direction in the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the afternoon, aligning with the downward correction. RSI, on the other hand, peaked near 70 earlier in the session, signaling overbought conditions, but fell to neutral territory as the pullback continued. These divergences suggest weakening momentum and increased likelihood of a near-term reversal. A RSI reading below 30 is a key watch for bearish confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained tightly within the Bollinger Bands for much of the session, indicating low volatility. A contraction in the band width occurred before the mid-morning breakout attempt, a classic precursor to a move. However, the failed breakout and subsequent pullback suggest market participants are uncertain, and the current consolidation within the bands may continue until a decisive move is made.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning surge to 0.0737 but declined during the afternoon pullback, indicating that the move higher lacked sustained buyer interest. Turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at the high and declining during the correction. This divergence between price and volume suggests that the bullish move may lack conviction, increasing the risk of a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute Fibonacci retracement from the low near 0.07131 to the high at 0.0737 shows key levels at 38.2% (0.0729) and 61.8% (0.0723), with price currently consolidating near 0.0729. A break below this level could trigger a test of the 61.8% level and potentially the daily low of 0.07131. Traders may look for a rejection at or above 0.0729 as a sign of bearish exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on detecting short-term reversals using a combination of RSI, volume divergence, and candlestick patterns. A signal is generated when RSI peaks above 70 and the next candle forms a bearish engulfing pattern with volume contraction. This hypothesis aligns with today’s price action, as both a high RSI and a bearish engulfing pattern occurred during the pullback. A stop-loss can be placed slightly below the 61.8% retracement level at 0.0723, with a target at the previous support at 0.07131. If price closes above 0.0737, the strategy would exit the short position and potentially reverse into a long bias.