Sign/Tether USDt Market Overview – 2025-09-11

• SIGNUSDT traded in a narrow range, consolidating after a morning rally, with muted momentum.
• A bearish divergence emerged in the late afternoon as volume surged without supporting price strength.
• Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion, suggesting increased volatility ahead of the close.
• Fibonacci retracements at 0.0792 and 0.0796 acted as key support/resistance during key turning points.

The Sign/Tether USDt (SIGNUSDT) pair opened at 0.0823 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0823, and a low of 0.07733 before closing at 0.07756 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 11,629,925.0, with a turnover of approximately $928,965.0 (based on USDt volume-weighted average price).

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a morning rally from 0.0792 to 0.0820, followed by a gradual decline and consolidation into the afternoon. A key bearish reversal pattern emerged around 0.0792, where a doji-like candle confirmed short-term exhaustion. The 0.0800–0.0806 range acted as a significant congestion zone, with price bouncing between these levels multiple times. A strong bearish engulfing pattern at the 0.0815–0.0811 level suggested increasing selling pressure after a brief counter-trend move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs showed a bearish crossover around 0.0803, reinforcing the downward bias in the morning. The daily chart confirmed a longer-term bearish trend with the 50-period SMA at 0.0796 crossing below the 100-period SMA at 0.0799. The 200-period SMA at 0.0795 also reinforced bearish sentiment, suggesting the pair is likely to continue below key moving averages in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the late morning, with the fast line dipping below the signal line as price declined. RSI crossed into oversold territory (below 30) in the early afternoon, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but price failed to follow through. A bearish divergence formed between RSI and price in the late afternoon, with RSI peaking near 45 while price continued to fall, signaling a possible continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion in the morning as volatility increased, with price trading near the upper band at 0.0806. By the afternoon, the bands had contracted, indicating decreasing volatility and consolidation. Price closed near the lower band at 0.07756, suggesting a bearish tilt in the short-term structure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively high during the morning rally, peaking at 1.76 million units as price moved up from 0.0792 to 0.0816. However, the afternoon saw a sharp increase in volume to over 688k units without a corresponding increase in price, signaling bearish conviction. Notional turnover was strongest in the 07:15–08:15 ET period, aligning with the morning rally. A divergence between rising volume and falling price in the late afternoon suggested increasing bearish control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.0792–0.0823 swing, key levels at 0.0806 (38.2%) and 0.0812 (61.8%) acted as resistance. On the daily chart, the 0.0796 (38.2%) and 0.0792 (61.8%) levels provided support during pullbacks. Price held above the 61.8% level in the afternoon but failed to retest the 38.2% level, indicating potential bearish continuation in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying key support and resistance levels using Fibonacci retracements and moving averages, combined with MACD and RSI signals to time entries. A potential short entry could be triggered when price falls below the 20-period EMA after a bearish MACD crossover, with a stop-loss above the 38.2% retracement level. Given the current setup, such a strategy would likely have entered a short position in the morning as the 20/50 EMAs crossed and MACD turned bearish. The trailing stop could be placed just below the 61.8% level at 0.0792, allowing for a risk-reward ratio of roughly 1:1.5 based on the morning range.