Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-17

• SIGNUSDT declined sharply from 0.04213 to 0.03901, losing ~7.2% in 24 hours amid a high-volume sell-off.
• Momentum indicators show oversold conditions, with RSI dipping below 30 and MACD diverging from price lows.
• Volatility expanded as the price dropped below lower Bollinger Bands, confirming a bearish breakout.
• Volume spiked during the 7:00–8:30 ET window as SIGNUSDT collapsed below key support near 0.0400.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 0.0389–0.0394 as potential near-term support, with 0.0408 as initial resistance.

The Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT) pair opened at 0.04213 (12:00 ET–1) and closed at 0.03991 (12:00 ET) after a 24-hour low of 0.03826. Total volume reached ~20.5 million units, with turnover hitting $824,400, reflecting heightened bearish participation during the sell-off. The candlestick formation featured a large bearish body and wick, signaling a strong rejection of recent price levels.

Over the 24-hour 15-minute chart, price action displayed a consistent bearish bias, with key support levels at 0.0400 and 0.0385 tested and breached. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, confirming the downward momentum. On the daily chart, price remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a continuation of a longer-term downtrend may be likely.

Momentum indicators showed diverging signals. The RSI hit 28 at the end of the session, entering oversold territory, while the MACD histogram showed negative divergence from the price lows, suggesting a possible near-term pause in the decline. However, this divergence alone may not signal a reversal without follow-through buying volume. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sell-off, with the price closing near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish scenario.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent 15-minute swing (0.04247 to 0.03901) indicate 38.2% at 0.0406 and 61.8% at 0.0394 as potential bounce zones. A close above 0.0408 could signal a countertrend move, but this appears unlikely without a clear breakout from the 0.0400–0.0405 resistance cluster. The 0.0395 level may serve as a near-term floor, with further support at 0.0389.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish momentum observed in SIGNUSDT’s candlestick pattern and diverging indicators could provide a compelling setup for testing a structured sell strategy. A potential backtest might involve entering short positions on confirmation of a Bearish Engulfing or large bearish candle with a close below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 0.0394), and exiting upon a rejection at the 0.0400 level or when RSI crosses above 50. Given the current environment, this approach could be backtested on other volatile small-cap crypto pairs or even applied to equities with similar momentum profiles.