Sign/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from $0.04043 to $0.04004 over 24 hours amid bearish momentum.
• RSI dipped below 50, signaling weakening bullish bias and potential near-term oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price consolidating near the midline.

Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT) opened at $0.04043 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.04004 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $0.04089 and low of $0.03917. Total volume over the period was 7,973,781 units, while turnover reached $332,965. The price path displayed choppy consolidation with a modest downward drift, suggesting indecision among traders.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended lower, with price fluctuating around the 20SMA. The 50SMA remained above the 20SMA, indicating a short-term bearish crossover has not occurred yet. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA appear to have diverged, with the price trading below both and showing no immediate signs of a reversal.

Momentum indicators revealed a bearish tilt. The 12/26 MACD crossed below the signal line in negative territory, while RSI fell to 45, hinting at oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price bouncing between the midline and lower band. No strong bearish candlestick patterns emerged, but a series of lower highs and mixed-length wicks suggested selling pressure.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from a recent 15-minute swing (high: $0.04089 to low: $0.04015) showed price consolidating near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential area of interest for a near-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the last major move appears to be acting as resistance.

Looking ahead, a break below $0.03970 could extend the correction, while a retest of the $0.04030–$0.04050 range may trigger a consolidation or a reversal. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated and directional clarity is yet to emerge.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-based short-selling strategy for SIGNUSDT yielded mixed results over the 2022–2025 period. While the annualized return appears positive at 13.11%, the total cumulative return was -2.48%, largely due to large draw-downs that offset smaller gains. The strategy’s low Sharpe ratio (0.21) and high maximum draw-down (-34.59%) highlight its poor risk-adjusted performance. The average trade P/L of -0.31% shows that the strategy struggled to capture consistent gains, as average losses (-7.93%) far outpaced average profits (7.31%). These results suggest that an unconditional 7-day short on overbought RSI is insufficient for a robust trading edge in this asset. To improve, the strategy could incorporate tighter RSI thresholds, tighter stop-loss rules, or additional confirmation signals such as bearish MACD crossovers or price action below key moving averages. Testing alternative exit logic, like trailing stops or closing positions when RSI re-enters neutral territory, could also yield better performance. Ultimately, further refinement and walk-forward analysis would be critical to assess the strategy’s viability in evolving market conditions.