Sign/Tether Market Overview

• • •

• Price action showed a sharp early decline followed by a rebound, with a final close near 0.04047.
• Volatility spiked during the early part of the session, with a range expansion from 0.04272 to 0.04147.
• The 24-hour volume of 28.5 million contracts confirmed strong interest during the sell-off.
• RSI and MACD diverged slightly, suggesting potential momentum exhaustion.
• Price found temporary support near 0.0401 and resistance near 0.0408 during the session.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT) opened at 0.04255 and closed at 0.04047, with a high of 0.04272 and a low of 0.03944 over the 24-hour period. The price action reflected a volatile session with a clear bearish bias early on. Total traded volume reached 28.5 million contracts, and notional turnover amounted to $1.14 million based on an average price of 0.04045.

Structure & Formations

The chart displayed key support levels around 0.0401 and 0.0396, both of which were tested and bounced from during the session. Resistance levels at 0.0408 and 0.0410 were also clearly visible, with several failed breakouts suggesting bearish control in the short term. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 19:30 ET on 2025-10-11, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji formed near 0.0405 at 04:00 ET, indicating indecision among traders at that point in time.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed during the early part of the session, with the 20-SMA crossing below the 50-SMA to signal a bearish crossover. On the daily timeframe, the 50 and 100-day moving averages are converging from above, with the price hovering slightly below both, indicating a potential short-term correction. The 200-day SMA remains well above current levels, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative mid-session and remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI indicator dropped into oversold territory near 30 at the end of the session, which may hint at a potential rebound. However, the divergence between the RSI and price action—particularly during the late hours—suggests caution as momentum may not yet be fully exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly early in the session, with prices oscillating near the lower band between 0.0401 and 0.03944. A contraction was observed in the later hours, indicating a potential period of consolidation. Price has since remained near the middle band, suggesting a possible resumption of sideways movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was particularly heavy during the early sell-off, especially between 19:30 ET and 20:30 ET on 2025-10-11, with one candle showing a volume of 891,099 contracts. Turnover aligned closely with volume, suggesting a genuine price reaction to the bearish pressure. A divergence between price and volume occurred in the final hours of the session, where lower volume accompanied a price rebound—potentially signaling a weak reversal attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels were defined by the swing high at 0.04272 and the swing low at 0.03944. The 61.8% retracement level at 0.0406 provided a minor resistance. Daily Fibonacci levels are also relevant, particularly the 38.2% and 50% retracements from the recent peak, which are now acting as key support/resistance levels for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed technical patterns and divergences, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias with a target near the 0.0396 support level and a stop placed above the 0.0408 resistance. This approach would align with the bearish engulfing pattern, the bearish crossover in the moving averages, and the RSI entering oversold territory—conditions historically associated with short-term corrections. Position sizing could be optimized based on volatility, using Bollinger Band width as a proxy for market noise.