Sign/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-22

• Price action shows a bullish reversal in late ET hours, with a key low at 0.08406.
• Momentum indicators suggest a potential overbought condition, though volume remains moderate.
• Volatility spiked during the 06:15–10:45 ET window, coinciding with a sharp 10.8% rally.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the rally, indicating a breakout from a 12-hour consolidation range.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and volume appears at the 15:15–17:00 ET window, warranting caution.

At 12:00 ET–1 (ET), Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT) opened at 0.08478, hit a low of 0.08106, a high of 0.08901, and closed at 0.08555 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 62,875,670, with a notional turnover of $5,372,762 (calculated from price and volume inputs). Price action shows a complex narrative of consolidation, breakout, and pullback, with a strong rally from 06:15–10:45 ET and a subsequent correction.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level at 0.08406, tested twice with a bullish reversal forming on the second test. Between 06:15–10:45 ET, price broke above a descending trendline, forming a bullish flag pattern. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 08:30 ET after the asset corrected from 0.08901, suggesting a possible trend continuation. A doji at 15:15 ET and a bearish dark cloud cover at 17:00 ET highlight internal indecision and a potential bearish shift in momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.08613) and 50-period MA (0.0863) cross above the price, suggesting a bearish crossover. However, the 50 MA is now crossing above the 20 MA, forming a potential “death cross” warning. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (0.0864) and 200-period MA (0.0859) indicate a slight bullish bias as the 50 MA crosses above the 200 MA, though the 100-period MA (0.0861) remains a near-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

MACD shows a bearish divergence, with the line crossing below the signal line at 09:00 ET and forming a negative bar after the 08:30 ET rally. The RSI, however, shows mixed signals: it hit a 12-hour high of 68 at 09:00 ET, indicating a potential overbought condition, but dropped sharply to 42 at 15:15 ET, suggesting a bearish correction. A bearish divergence between RSI and price action appears in the 15:15–17:00 ET window, with price making a lower high while RSI peaks earlier, a classic bearish signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 06:15–10:45 ET rally, with price reaching the upper band at 0.08901 before retracting. The bands then contracted during the 11:00–14:45 ET consolidation, signaling a potential breakout attempt. By 15:30 ET, price broke below the middle band, indicating a bearish shift in volatility. The narrowest contraction occurred around 14:45 ET, followed by a 2.5% drop in 15 minutes, suggesting a high-probability continuation of the bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume occurred at 06:15–10:45 ET, with 6,842,170 units traded, coinciding with the 10.8% rally from 0.08406 to 0.08901. However, volume during the subsequent 1.5-hour pullback (10:45–12:15 ET) was significantly lower at 3,660,946 units, forming a volume divergence. Notional turnover peaked at $604,904 during the 08:30–08:45 ET rally, but dropped to $300,500 during the 15:15–16:00 ET correction, reinforcing the bearish divergence. A volume spike at 15:15 ET coincided with the doji formation, suggesting a failed attempt to reclaim the 0.08705 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels from the 06:15–10:45 ET swing (0.08406 to 0.08901) are 0.0874 (38.2%), 0.0863 (50%), and 0.0852 (61.8%). Price tested the 61.8% level at 0.0852 before continuing the pullback. Daily Fibonacci levels (from a 24-hour low of 0.08106 to high of 0.08901) show 0.0862 (38.2%), 0.0851 (50%), and 0.0840 (61.8%). The 50% level at 0.0851 appears to be a strong support zone, with price bouncing off it three times over the past 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 15-minute RSI crosses above 60 (overbought) and the price closes below the 20-period MA, with a stop-loss placed just above the 50-period MA. A long entry could be triggered when the 50-period MA crosses above the 20-period MA and the RSI falls below 30 (oversold), with a stop-loss below the 100-period MA. Given today’s price action, this strategy would have triggered a short signal at 09:00–09:15 ET and a long signal at 11:30–11:45 ET, aligning with the observed consolidation and potential reversal at key Fibonacci levels. The volume divergence and bearish engulfing patterns further support the short entry, while the 50-period MA crossover at 11:30 ET provides a technical confirmation for the long bias.