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Sigma Lithium (NasdaqCM:SGML) has rebounded 62.25% in 30 days and 74.63% in 90 days, lifting the stock to $10.53. However, the 1 year total shareholder return remains negative, and long-term holders have a 3 year total shareholder return loss. The company's Quintuple Zero ESG model and planned expansion to 120,000 tonnes LCE by 2027 are expected to drive growth, but heavy reliance on lithium price recovery and delayed offtake deals pose risks. The current price of $10.53 slightly overshoots the narrative fair value of $10.50, making it 30% overvalued.

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