SIGA Technologies Navigates Near-Term Challenges with Strong Backlog and Strategic Momentum

SIGA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGA) delivered a starkly uneven first quarter of 2025: revenue plummeted 73% year-over-year, yet the company remains positioned for a rebound, fueled by a robust order backlog, strategic government contracts, and regulatory milestones. The mixed results underscore SIGA’s dual identity as a cash-rich, contract-driven biopharma firm with a narrow but critical product portfolio.

Financial Performance: A Dip Ahead of Deliveries
SIGA’s Q1 2025 revenue of $7.0 million was a sharp decline from $25.4 million in Q1 2024, driven by a 76% drop in product sales to $5.8 million. The net loss of $0.4 million contrasted with a $10.3 million profit a year earlier. These results reflect the timing of deliveries under multiyear government contracts. In Q1 2024, SIGA recognized revenue from large SNS (Strategic National Stockpile) orders, whereas Q1 2025 is a “transition quarter” before major shipments resume.

Ask Aime: What will SIGA's Q2 2025 look like after a 73% revenue drop?

The company’s liquidity, however, remains enviable. Cash reserves rose to $162.27 million as of March 31, 2025, up from $155 million in late 2024, enabling SIGA to declare a special $0.60-per-share dividend—its second in less than two years.

Ask Aime: How can SIGA Technologies rebound from a 73% revenue drop?

Strategic Momentum: Backlog and Contracts Fuel Future Growth
SIGA’s near-term outlook hinges on its $94 million SNS order backlog. By April 2025, it had already delivered $62 million of this total, including $53 million in oral TPOXX and $9 million in IV formulations. Of the remaining $32 million, $7 million is slated for delivery by Q3 2025, with the rest in 2026.

Government contracts continue to drive growth. In Q1, SIGA secured a $26 million procurement order for IV TPOXX and a $14 million manufacturing contract modification under its 19C BARDA agreement. These deals, combined with the SNS backlog, provide visibility into 2026 revenue.

Global Expansion and Regulatory Wins
SIGA’s international strategy is paying off. A $6 million March 2025 sale to a foreign government marked its fifth such transaction in six years, signaling sustained demand for TPOXX in global markets.

Regulatory approvals are also expanding TPOXX’s reach. In January 2025, Japan’s Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency approved TPOXX (branded as TEPOXX) for smallpox, mpox, cowpox, and vaccination complications—a first for Japan’s orthopoxvirus countermeasures framework. This opens access to a market with stringent regulatory standards and significant public health priorities.

Ask Aime: Why did SIGA Technologies' revenue plummet 73% year-over-year in Q1 2025, and what does its robust order backlog and strategic government contracts say about its future growth prospects?

Risks and Challenges
SIGA’s reliance on a single drug (TPOXX) and a few key contracts leaves it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, contract delays, or shifts in government priorities. For instance, a delay in SNS deliveries could push revenue recognition into 2026, compressing 2025 results.

CEO Diem Nguyen acknowledged these risks but emphasized the company’s execution track record: “We’ve consistently met our contractual obligations, and our supply chain is now more robust after prior challenges.”

Conclusion: A Company Betting on Its Backlog and Breadth
SIGA’s Q1 results were a function of timing, not fundamentals. With $94 million in confirmed SNS orders, a growing international footprint, and a $162 million cash cushion, the company is well-positioned to rebound. The special dividend—a rarity in biotech—signals management’s confidence in its liquidity and pipeline.

Crucially, SIGA’s moat is its dominance in orthopoxvirus treatments. TPOXX is the only FDA-approved smallpox treatment, and its expanded use in mpox (monkeypox) has solidified its role in global health security. Regulatory wins like the Japanese approval and repeat international sales suggest TPOXX’s demand will outlast the current SNS cycle.

Investors should monitor two key metrics: the pace of SNS deliveries (with $7 million still due in 2025) and progress in securing new international contracts. If SIGA meets its delivery targets and expands its customer base, the current slump in revenue will prove temporary. For now, the company’s focus on executing against existing orders—and leveraging its unique position in a niche but vital market—offers a compelling, if volatile, investment thesis.

In the biopharma sector, where pipeline-dependent firms often trade on potential, SIGA is a rare exception: a company with a proven product, contractual revenue visibility, and a balance sheet that allows it to pay shareholders while growing. For investors willing to look past the Q1 stumble, the path to SIGA’s next earnings inflection point is clear—and deliverable.