SIGA's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on RFP Timelines, Cash Position, and TPOXX's Mpox Potential

Date of Call: November 6, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $0.9M product revenue in Q3 2025; $86M product revenue for 9 months ended Sept 30, 2025 (up from $54M in prior-year period); includes $53M oral, $26M IV (19C BARDA), $6M international; $26M outstanding U.S. order targeted for delivery in 2026.
• EPS: $0.40 fully diluted income per share for 9 months ended Sept 30, 2025; net loss per share $0.09 for Q3 2025.

Guidance:

• Expect multiple international sales in 2026.
• Targeting FDA submission for PEP indication in 2026 (timing may be impacted by government shutdown).
• Targeting IND submission for pediatric formulation by year-end 2025 with Phase I to begin shortly thereafter.
• Expect delivery of $26M IV TPOXX order in 2026 and remain engaged with U.S. government on future procurement.

Business Commentary:

* Financial Performance and Product Sales: - SIGA Technologies reported product revenue totaling approximately $86 million for the 9 months ended September 30, 2025, including $53 million of oral TPOXX and $26 million of IV TPOXX sales under the 19C BARDA contract. - Despite a relatively quiet third quarter with $0.9 million in product revenues, SIGA's strong second quarter performance contributed to this growth. -

- The growth in product sales is attributed to ongoing government contracts and the company's strategic focus on preparedness for bioterrorism and smallpox outbreaks.

• Cash Position and Financial Discipline:
• SIGA maintained a strong balance sheet, with a cash balance of approximately $172 million and no debt as of September 30, 2025.
• Since 2020, SIGA has returned approximately $230 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

• This financial strength is due to disciplined financial management and consistent cash flow generation.

• U.S. Government Engagement and TPOXX Procurement:

• Despite disruptions from government shutdowns, SIGA remains engaged with the U.S. government regarding TPOXX development, manufacturing, and procurement.
• The company has been awarded $27 million for pediatric formulation development and IV tech transfer activities and continues discussions about future TPOXX procurement.

• SIGA's strategic focus on maintaining access to TPOXX as a critical medical countermeasure for smallpox drives these ongoing engagements.

• Pipeline Advancements and Late-Stage Programs:

• SIGA continues to advance its TPOXX post-exposure prophylaxis program and pediatric program, with anticipated FDA submission in 2026 for the former.
• The pediatric program aims to address an unmet need for children too small for the current oral formulation of TPOXX, with an IND submission targeted for the end of 2025.
• These advancements are due to collaborations with the CDC and BARDA, and SIGA's commitment to addressing public health concerns.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Neutral

  • Management described Q3 as "relatively quiet" but highlighted a "strong" Q2 and ongoing government engagement; CFO emphasized a cash balance of ~$172M and no debt providing flexibility. They noted potential CDC delays from the government shutdown but said operations and procurement discussions remain active.

Q&A:

• Question from Jyoti Prakash (Edison Investment Research Limited): What kind of potential impact, if any, do you see on the ongoing RFP process and the timelines for TPOXX stockpiling given the government shutdown?
  Response: Shutdown has not materially impacted operations or existing contracts, but may delay CDC sample analysis and PEP timelines; procurement progress remains driven by government leadership and engagement continues.

• Question from Jyoti Prakash (Edison Investment Research Limited): If the RFP may be slightly delayed, are there mitigation strategies or operational steps SIGA can implement to secure the longer-term outlook?
  Response: Strong balance sheet ($172M cash, no debt, cash >4x annual operating expenses) gives SIGA flexibility to adapt, manage risks and continue pursuing opportunities.

• Question from Jyoti Prakash (Edison Investment Research Limited): Can you elaborate on the $0.9M of product revenues in Q3 and why cost of goods as a percentage of sales was higher this quarter?
  Response: The $0.9M reflects certain reimbursements/accounting treatments (e.g., IV tech transfer) recorded as product revenue; higher COGS reflects related expenses plus semi-fixed production costs (stability, storage, security) in a quiet quarter — a technical, non-trend outcome.

Contradiction Point 1

RFP Timeline and Government Engagement

It involves the timing and progress of the RFP process, which is crucial for SIGA Technologies' strategic planning and revenue projections.

How might U.S. government disruptions and recent shutdowns affect the ongoing RFP process and TPOXX stockpiling timelines? - Jyoti Prakash (Edison Investment Research Limited)

2025Q3: SIGA continues to engage with the U.S. government regarding TPOXX's development, manufacturing, and procurement, and remains encouraged by their long-term interest in maintaining access to TPOXX. - Diem Nguyen(CEO & Director)

What's the updated expected RFP timeline for TPOXX due to recent Trump administration policy changes? - Jyoti Prakash (Edison Group)

2025Q1: SIGA will engage with the U.S. government when ready to discuss a new contract. - Diem Nguyen(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Cash Position and Operational Flexibility

It pertains to SIGA's financial health and operational adaptability, which are essential for navigating potential disruptions and maintaining investor confidence.

If the RFP is delayed, what steps or strategies is SIGA planning to implement to ensure the long-term outlook? - Jyoti Prakash(Edison Investment Research Limited)

2025Q3: With a strong cash position ($172 million) and no debt, SIGA has a flexible position. The cash balance is over four times the annual run rate for operating expenses, which allows the company to adapt to different environments and manage risks. - Daniel Luckshire(Executive VP, CFO & Secretary)

Could you provide details on your cash balance's progress year-to-date and your expectations for fiscal 2025? - James Lang (Investec)

2025Q2: At June 30, 2025, SIGA's cash, cash equivalents, and investments totaled $172 million. SIGA believes that its cash on hand should be sufficient to fund its operations for at least the next 12 to 18 months. - Daniel Luckshire(Executive VP, CFO & Secretary)

Contradiction Point 3

Impact of Government Disruptions on RFP Process

It involves the potential impact of government disruptions on the RFP process and timelines for TPOXX stockpiling, which could influence the company's revenue and strategic planning.

What impact do you see on the RFP process and TPOXX stockpiling timelines due to U.S. government disruptions and shutdowns? - Jyoti Prakash (Edison Investment Research Limited)

2025Q3: As of now, operational activities have not been materially impacted, with most key government employees engaged. The only potential delay might be with the CDC, which could affect the analysis of samples for TPOXX's post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) program. - Diem Nguyen(CEO & Director)

Are you considering re-engaging with BARDA and expanding the contract? - Brian Adams ([ Carter, Cargo, Terry ])

2024Q4: We continue to engage with the U.S. government regarding tecovirimat's importance for smallpox preparedness. Discussions include manufacturing strategies and potential volume, but no specific range has been identified. - Diem Nguyen(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Potential for TPOXX in Mpox Treatments

It involves the assessment of TPOXX's potential in treating mpox, which could impact the company's strategic focus and market positioning.

How might U.S. government disruptions and recent shutdowns affect the RFP process and TPOXX stockpiling timelines? - Jyoti Prakash (Edison Investment Research Limited)

2025Q3: As we have previously mentioned, our network and manufacturing capabilities enable us to rapidly scale to meet new production needs, which we have done with TPOXX in response to the ongoing mpox outbreak. - Diem Nguyen(CEO & Director)

How will the mpox opportunity evolve based on PALM 007 and STOMP trial results? - Jyoti Prakash (Edison Group)

2024Q4: While trials had limitations, we're evaluating tecovirimat's potential benefit and will design further studies accordingly. SIGA is not the sponsor of these trials, so we can't modify designs. - Diem Nguyen(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Impact of Government Shutdowns on Operations

It pertains to the potential impact of government shutdowns on SIGA Technologies' operations, which could affect project timelines and financial performance.

How might U.S. government shutdowns affect the ongoing RFP process and TPOXX stockpiling timelines? - Jyoti Prakash (Edison Investment Research Limited)

2025Q3: As of now, operational activities have not been materially impacted, with most key government employees engaged. - Diem Nguyen(CEO & Director)

Can you update the expected RFP timeline for TPOXX due to recent Trump administration policy changes? - Jyoti Prakash (Edison Group)

2025Q1: SIGA has not been materially impacted by the U.S. federal government shutdown. - Diem Nguyen(CEO)