Shopify Stock Surges 6.5% to $161.14 on Strong Technical Momentum

Shopify (SHOP) rallied 6.50% in the most recent session, closing at $161.14, marking its third consecutive day of gains and an 8.43% advance over that period. The stock reached a high of $162.6 during the day, demonstrating significant upward momentum after rebounding from the vicinity of $140 earlier in the week.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals key bullish signals. The session on 2025-09-29 formed a bullish hammer near $140.91 (closing near its high at $149), suggesting rejection of lower prices. The subsequent three consecutive white candlesticks, culminating in the large 6.50% gain on high volume, establish strong bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is apparent around $162.5-$163, near the recent high and the level seen in early August following the large gap up. Strong support is now evident at the $150 level, reinforced by the cluster of closes around $149-$151.30 in late September.
Moving Average Theory
The current price sits significantly above major moving averages, confirming a strong uptrend. The closing price ($161.14) is well above both the likely calculated 50-day (~$128-$130) and 100-day (~$120-$122) averages, indicating robust short and intermediate-term bullishness. Critically, the price remains above the psychologically important 200-day moving average (estimated near $110-$115), confirming the primary long-term uptrend remains intact. The price trajectory suggests these MAs (particularly the 50-day and 100-day) are rising, providing dynamic support beneath the current price.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) is likely well within positive territory. A sustained bullish crossover occurred earlier in September when price began its ascent from the $140s. The MACD histogram should be expanding positively, aligning with the strong upward momentum and recent price gains, indicating increasing bullish pressure. KDJ readings are highly probable to be in overbought territory (K and D > 80) after the strong three-day rally. While this signals near-term exhaustion potential, the strong upward trend makes divergences necessary for reversal warnings – which are not currently observed in recent price/MACD action.
Bollinger Bands
Price is pressing against the upper Bollinger Band ($162.6 close), typically signalling strength but also suggesting the move is extended in the very short term. The bands have been expanding moderately since the breakout from the $140-$150 consolidation range in late September, indicating increasing volatility aligned with the uptrend. The lack of sharp expansion suggests the trend may have room to run before a major volatility spike occurs. Holding near the upper band strengthens the bull case, while a sharp reversal into the bands would signal a potential pullback.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis strongly validates the recent price advance. The significant 6.50% gain on October 3rd occurred on the highest volume (15.7M shares) seen in several weeks, confirming robust buyer conviction behind the breakout. This high volume ascent eclipses the lower volumes witnessed during the preceding consolidation and minor pullbacks in late September. The expansion of volume on upside days versus contraction on down days throughout this move reinforces the underlying bullish demand for Shopify shares.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Applying the RSI calculation to the recent upswing yields an RSI likely hovering around 68-70. This places the indicator near, but technically still below, the overbought threshold (>70). While high, it's not yet signalling extreme overbought conditions given the strong trend. This suggests upward momentum persists but also introduces a note of caution for a potential near-term consolidation or minor pullback as the indicator flirts with overbought territory. The RSI should be monitored closely for potential bearish divergences should new price highs not be confirmed by higher RSI highs.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracements to the significant impulse wave from the June low (~$106) to the August 6th peak ($154.90) provides key levels. The 23.6% retracement sits near $145, the 38.2% near $136, and the 50% near $130.50. Shopify found strong support during its September pullback near the 23.6% level ($145-$140), a common shallow retracement zone in strong trends. Extending the Fibonacci tool to project upwards from the August high to the recent September trough (~$140.25) highlights significant resistance levels: the 61.8% extension near $157.50 (surpassed), the 100% extension at $162.55 (tested on Oct 3rd high of $162.6), and the critical 161.8% extension near $175. The test of the 100% extension ($162.55) makes this level pivotal resistance. A confirmed breakout above it could target the $175 zone (161.8% extension).
Conclusion
Shopify exhibits robust technical strength, confirmed by bullish candlestick patterns, a powerful volume-backed breakout, and firm positioning above all key moving averages. Momentum indicators like MACD support the uptrend, though KDJ and RSI suggest potential for a near-term consolidation after testing significant Fibonacci resistance ($162.55) and the upper Bollinger Band. Confluence exists at the $162.5-$163 level (recent high, Fibonacci 100% extension, upper Bollinger Band), making it critical near-term resistance. Sustained trade above this would be strongly bullish, targeting the $175 Fibonacci extension. Immediate support rests near $155 (recent consolidation support, ~50% retrace of the last leg up), with stronger support near $150 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level ($145). Absent bearish divergences or rejection signals near resistance, the technical bias remains bullish, with dips likely viewed as buying opportunities by market participants.