Shopify Soars 2.26% on E-Commerce Momentum and Analyst Upgrades: Is This the Start of a Bullish Run?

Summary
• Shopify (SHOP) surges 2.26% to $166.83, hitting an intraday high of $170.33 amid record Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales of $14.6B.
• Analysts at Wells Fargo and BofA raise price targets to $198 and $190, respectively, citing 30% GMV growth and enterprise market gains.
• Options activity intensifies, with 2025-12-26 calls at $170 and $172.5 strikes seeing 144,687 and 64,127 contracts traded.

Shopify’s 2.26% rally on December 17, 2025, reflects a confluence of robust e-commerce performance, analyst optimism, and strategic momentum. With 81 million global customers engaging Shopify merchants and a 38% year-over-year surge in merchant solutions revenue, the stock’s intraday high of $170.33 signals renewed institutional confidence. The move aligns with a broader e-commerce sector shift toward AI-driven efficiency and international expansion, positioning Shopify as a key player in the next phase of digital commerce.

Black Friday-Cyber Monday Sales and Analyst Upgrades Fuel Shopify’s Rally
Shopify’s 2.26% surge is directly tied to its record-breaking $14.6B in Black Friday-Cyber Monday gross merchandise volume (GMV), a 27% year-over-year increase. This performance, coupled with 38% growth in merchant solutions revenue and 30% GMV expansion in enterprise segments, has triggered a wave of analyst upgrades. Wells Fargo raised its price target to $198 (58.4% higher than the previous $125), while BofA Securities cited Shopify’s 30% GMV growth and enterprise market share gains as catalysts. The stock’s intraday high of $170.33 also reflects renewed optimism about its AI-driven tools and international expansion potential, particularly in Europe, where GMV grew 42% in Q2 2025.

E-Commerce Sector Gains Momentum as Shopify Outpaces Amazon’s Modest 0.58% Rally
While Shopify’s 2.26% gain outperforms Amazon’s 0.58% intraday rise, the broader e-commerce sector is seeing mixed signals. Walmart’s Q3 FY26 earnings highlighted 28% U.S. e-commerce growth and 26% international GMV expansion, underscoring the sector’s resilience. However, Shopify’s focus on AI-driven merchant solutions and enterprise market share gains positions it as a more aggressive play. Analysts note that Shopify’s 30% GMV growth outpaces the industry’s low double-digit trends, while its 38% merchant solutions growth reflects deeper integration into merchant operations. This divergence highlights Shopify’s unique value proposition as a full-stack commerce platform, contrasting with Amazon’s retail-centric model.

Capitalizing on Shopify’s Bullish Momentum: ETFs and Options Playbook
• MACD: 1.935 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.121)
• RSI: 55.68 (neutral, avoiding overbought/oversold extremes)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $166.83 (near upper band $171.80, suggesting short-term overextension)
• 30D MA: $155.89 (price above, confirming bullish trend)

Shopify’s technicals and fundamentals align for a continuation of its rally. The 2025-12-26 $170 call (SHOP20251226C170) and $172.5 call (SHOP20251226C172.5) stand out for their high leverage ratios (45.42% and 64.53%) and moderate deltas (0.428 and 0.344), balancing directional exposure with time decay (theta of -0.521 and -0.443). These contracts also benefit from high turnover (144,687 and 64,127) and implied volatility (44.02% and 42.20%), reflecting market anticipation of further gains. A 5% upside scenario (targeting $175.17) would yield 111.36% and 137.70% returns on these calls, making them ideal for aggressive bulls. For ETF exposure, the Direxion Daily SHOP Bull 2X ETF (SHPU) offers 4.58% gains, amplifying Shopify’s momentum with 2X leverage.

Backtest Shopify Stock Performance
After a 2% intraday increase in Shopify (SHOP) from 2022 to now, the stock experienced mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate was 50.53%, indicating roughly half of the time the stock declined, the 10-day and 30-day win rates were higher at 67.37% and 81.05%, respectively. This suggests that while immediate reactions to such an increase were somewhat negative, longer-term views generally yielded better returns.

Shopify’s Bull Run Gains Steam: Key Levels and Catalysts to Watch
Shopify’s 2.26% rally is underpinned by a perfect storm of e-commerce momentum, analyst upgrades, and AI-driven merchant solutions. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high of $182.19 and its 38% merchant solutions growth suggest the move could extend. Traders should monitor the $170.33 intraday high as a critical support-turned-resistance level. A break above this could trigger a retest of the 52W high, with the 2025-12-26 $170 call offering leveraged exposure. Meanwhile, the broader sector’s strength—evidenced by Amazon’s 0.58% gain—reinforces the case for holding long positions. For a balanced approach, the Direxion Daily SHOP Bull 2X ETF (SHPU) provides amplified exposure to Shopify’s momentum, while the $172.5 call offers high-risk, high-reward potential. Investors should also watch for a potential pullback to the 30D MA at $155.89 as a buying opportunity.