Shopify Rises 7.96% Amid Bullish Signals But Faces Resistance At 115.16

Candlestick Theory
Shopify's recent three-day bullish surge (totaling 7.96%) culminated in a strong closing white candle at $114.41, reinforcing psychological resistance near $115.16. This follows a hammer pattern on June 23 ($103.91 low), which signaled rejection of lower prices. Key support now resides at $106.40 (June 20 close), aligning with the June 16-17 consolidation zone. Resistance is evident at $115.16 (June 24 high) and the $117.36 swing high from June 11. The lack of upper shadows on the last two candles suggests sustained bullish conviction, though proximity to the $115–$117 resistance band warrants caution for potential profit-taking.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day EMA (not calculable fully with current dataset) implies short-term bullish momentum, as price trades well above the 20-day SMA ($105.50). However, the absence of 100-day and 200-day averages due to limited data restricts long-term trend validation. The shorter-term EMA configuration supports upside bias, with recent closes holding firmly above the 20-day benchmark, reinforcing near-term strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram shows narrowing negative momentum, approaching a bullish crossover as the 12-day EMA converges toward the signal line. KDJ’s %K (83) and %D (78) indicate overbought territory, though upward-sloping lines suggest persistent buying pressure. Divergence emerges here: MACD’s nascent recovery aligns with price rebound, but KDJ’s overbought reading flags short-term exhaustion risk. This implies consolidation may precede further gains.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the June 11 sell-off (band width peak), contracting notably during the June 18–20 consolidation. Price currently hugs the upper band ($115), confirming strong uptrend momentum. However, this positioning alongside KDJ overbought signals heightens reversion probability. A close below $112 would suggest band fade, targeting the midline near $108.50.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains lack volume confirmation—June 24’s 4.03% rally occurred on 7.54M shares vs. the 10-day average of 8.62M, indicating tepid participation. Contrastingly, the June 11–12 downturn saw high volume (14.1M and 8.67M shares), validating resistance near $117. The absence of accumulation volume during the current rally questions sustainability, though three consecutive higher closes temper bearish volume interpretation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI(14) registers 68, nearing overbought territory but not yet extreme. Averages suggest strengthening momentum (current gain/loss ratio of 1.13 vs. 0.85 last week). Divergence is absent; RSI’s ascent parallels price. However, exceeding 70 would warrant caution—especially given KDJ’s overbought alignment—though Shopify could maintain overbought RSI briefly in strong trends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibs to the June 11 high ($117.36) and June 23 low ($103.91) reveals critical levels: 38.2% ($109.20) held as support on June 24, while the 61.8% retracement ($112.05) now acts as interim resistance-turned-support. Current price tests the 76.4% level ($114.22) with confluence at the psychological $115 barrier. A decisive break above $115 targets the 100% extension at $117.36, while failure risks a pullback to $112.05.
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Confluence exists at $114.20–$115.20 (Bollinger Band upper limit, Fibonacci 76.4%, and psychological resistance), amplifying its technical significance. Bearish divergence surfaces in volume-price dynamics, while KDJ overbought conditions contrast with RSI’s neutral-bullish stance. Overall, Shopify exhibits robust near-term momentum, but volume skepticism and multi-indicator overbought warnings suggest heightened near-term consolidation probability above $112. A close above $115 could trigger bullish continuation toward $117.