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Shifting Fortunes: Finnish Distrust in NATO and Strategic Implications

Julian WestTuesday, Apr 29, 2025 8:37 am ET
84min read

The geopolitical calculus in Northern Europe has taken a sharp turn. Recent polling data reveals a stark erosion of Finnish public confidence in NATO’s security guarantees, driven by anxieties over U.S. leadership under Donald Trump’s second term. This shift poses both risks and opportunities for investors in defense, energy, and Nordic equities.

Ask Aime: How can I invest in Finland's defense and energy companies amid NATO's security concerns?

The Poll Numbers: A Fraying Trust

The March 2025 survey by Finland’s EVA think tank underscores a dramatic reversal in sentiment since the heady days of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine propelled 82% of Finns to support NATO membership. Today, just 32% believe NATO’s Article 5 guarantees—its cornerstone of collective defense—are reliable enough to deter aggression. This marks a 21-percentage-point decline from autumn 2023. Meanwhile, 53% doubt allies would come to Finland’s aid in a crisis, and support for NATO membership has dipped to 66%, its lowest since May 2022.

Ask Aime: What's the impact of Finland's NATO trust wane on U.S. defense stocks?

Why the Skepticism? Blame U.S. Uncertainty

The decline correlates directly with Trump’s re-election in 2024. His repeated demands for “fair burden-sharing” among NATO allies and his conditional stance on Article 5—linking U.S. military support to defense spending thresholds—have eroded Finnish trust. Finland’s defense budget has surged since 2022, but public perception lags behind reality: only 39% believe their country spends enough on defense, despite expenditures hitting €4.3 billion in 2024, up from €2.8 billion in 2019.

Government Response: Doubling Down on Defense

Finland’s leaders are pivoting to offset the U.S. wildcard. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s government has prioritized three strategies:
1. Autonomous Defense: Boosting domestic capabilities, including upgrading the Finnish Air Force’s F-35 fleet and expanding cyber defense units.
2. Regional Alliances: Strengthening ties with Sweden and the Baltic states through joint military exercises and intelligence-sharing.
3. Diversified Security: Expanding partnerships with non-NATO actors like Japan and South Korea, which have pledged defense technology cooperation.

Investment Implications: Follow the Defense Dollars

The data suggests a clear path for investors:

1. Nordic Defense Contractors

Finland’s increased military spending will directly benefit local firms like Patria, a key supplier of armored vehicles and drones.

PAX Closing Price
reveals a 47% rise in its share price, mirroring the 2022 NATO surge. Continued investment in national defense could sustain this momentum.

2. Energy and Critical Infrastructure

Finland’s reliance on Russian energy pre-2022 has spurred diversification. Renewable energy stocks like Fortum (FORTUM.HE) and nuclear projects in collaboration with France’s EDF (EDF.PA) are strategic plays. Geopolitical instability also favors companies like Nordic Energy Systems, which specializes in resilient grid technology.

3. Gold and Safe-Haven Assets

The poll’s findings signal heightened geopolitical uncertainty, a traditional driver for gold demand. Finland’s central bank has already increased its gold reserves by 15% since 2023.

GLD Closing Price
show a 22% rise during periods of NATO-related tensions.

Conclusion: A New Era of Pragmatic Security

Finland’s declining trust in NATO is not a rejection of the alliance but a pragmatic recalibration. The data paints a nation hedging its bets: boosting defense spending while seeking regional and global partnerships to fill gaps left by U.S. unpredictability. For investors, this means focusing on companies that benefit from autonomous defense buildups and energy resilience.

The numbers are clear: 66% public support for NATO remains a majority, but the erosion of trust—down from 82% in 2022—signals a market shift toward self-reliance. Investors who follow Finland’s lead in diversifying security and energy portfolios may find themselves well-positioned in this era of geopolitical volatility.

As the old adage goes, “Trust, but verify”—and in this case, invest.

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Throwaway420_69____
04/29
$TSLA, $AAPL can't hedge geopolitical risks like this.
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Particular-Ad-8433
04/29
@Throwaway420_69____ 👌
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EmergencyWitness7
04/29
Gold a safe bet amidst turmoil.
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BennyOcean
04/29
@EmergencyWitness7 What's your take on gold vs. other safe-havens like bonds?
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TTVJudgementGames
04/29
@EmergencyWitness7 Gold's a solid play, no doubt.
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Searchingstan
04/29
Diversify like Finland, hedge your bets.
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michael_curdt
04/29
Patria's rise mirrors Finland's defense surge, but can they maintain momentum with NATO trust eroding? 🤔
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JuniorCharge4571
04/29
@michael_curdt Sure, but markets be unpredictable.
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priviledgednews
04/29
Defense sector's hot, but don't sleep on renewable energy plays like Fortum. Geopolitical moves mean long-term gains.
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Affectionate_Use_606
04/29
@priviledgednews What about Nordic Energy Systems?
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oakleystreetchi
04/29
Fortum's renewables a solid long-term hold.
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meowmeowmrcow
04/29
Patria's rise mirrors NATO surge, interesting play.
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Frozen_turtle__
04/29
Defense stocks 🚀, here we come.
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DryPriority1552
04/29
Holy!the Peak Seeker algorithm successfully identified both trough and apex inflection points in AMZN equity's price action, while my execution latency resulted in material opportunity cost.
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