SHIBUSDT Market Overview for 2025-10-09

• SHIBUSDT consolidates after a sharp intraday decline, testing key support near $0.00001215.
• Momentum shifts midday, with bearish divergence noted on RSI and MACD.
• Volatility widens during midday session, with volume peaking at $28.16B on 15-min chart.
• Price action suggests potential for a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as a near-term target.

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at $0.00001220 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00001227 at the same time the following day. The 24-hour high reached $0.00001247 while the low dropped to $0.00001215. Total volume amounted to $198.5B, with a notional turnover of ~$2.45B. The pair exhibited a bearish reversal pattern in the afternoon hours, with a long upper shadow indicating rejection of higher levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern shows a bearish engulfing formation around 17:30–18:00 ET, as a bullish candle was followed by a significantly larger bearish one. A key support level is forming around $0.00001215, where multiple rejections have occurred. A doji formed near $0.00001220 at 04:45 ET, signaling indecision and possible consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, signaling bearish momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-SMA holding above the 200-SMA, suggesting the broader trend remains neutral-to-bullish. However, the 50-period SMA on the daily chart is starting to flatten as bearish intraday pressure persists.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the late afternoon session, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped from overbought territory (~65) to ~45, indicating a shift in market sentiment. The divergence between bullish price action and bearish RSI suggests potential for a pullback. A reading near 45 may indicate a short-term oversold condition if the price holds above $0.00001215.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke out of a narrow Bollinger Band squeeze in the early afternoon, followed by a significant expansion. Price remains inside the upper band after the breakout but has since retracted toward the middle band. A retest of the lower band may offer a buying opportunity if bulls hold the key support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to $28.16B during the 17:45–18:00 ET period, coinciding with a sharp decline in price. Turnover also rose significantly in that period, confirming the bearish move. A divergence is visible between volume and price in the early morning session, where price fell but volume remained low, suggesting weak conviction in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.00001247 to $0.00001215, the 61.8% level sits at $0.00001226. Price appears to have bounced off this level in the early morning session, suggesting it could serve as a near-term target for a short-covering rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtest strategy could involve using the 15-minute chart’s MACD crossover and volume divergence as entry signals. For instance, a bearish MACD crossover (triggered when the 20-period SMA crosses below the 50-period SMA) combined with a volume spike above average could indicate a high-probability short entry. Exit signals might include a RSI bounce above 50 or a retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach would aim to capture intraday bearish momentum while managing risk via tight stop-loss placement near the $0.00001230 level.

Looking ahead, SHIBUSDT could face a test of the $0.00001215 support level over the next 24 hours. A break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback, but a rebound above $0.00001226 may offer a short-term bounce. Investors are advised to monitor volume and momentum signals for confirmation and be cautious of possible divergence.