SHIBJPY Market Overview: Volatility Expands Amid Weak Momentum

• SHIBJPY fell 0.64% over 24 hours, closing at 0.001506 JPY
• Volatility expanded after 18:00 ET, with a 0.88% intraday dip
• Volume surged near 03:30 ET, hitting 3.8B SHIB with limited follow-through
• Price failed to hold above 0.00153 JPY, suggesting near-term bearish bias
• RSI approached oversold levels but failed to trigger a rebound

The Shiba Inu/Yen pair opened at 0.001590 JPY (12:00 ET − 1) and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.001487 JPY, closing at 0.001506 JPY (12:00 ET) after a volatile session. Total traded volume reached 1.07 trillion SHIB, with a notional turnover of ¥161.8 million. A sharp sell-off late in the session highlighted bearish pressure, with key support levels frequently tested and broken.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed a bearish bias, with repeated failed attempts to retest and hold above 0.00153 JPY. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji at 02:15 ET hinted at indecision, but this was quickly invalidated by a sharp decline. Key support levels appear to have formed at 0.001506 and 0.001487 JPY, both of which were briefly tested. Resistance remains at 0.00153 JPY and 0.001544 JPY, with a breakout above either level likely to signal a short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. Daily data shows a similar bearish alignment with all key moving averages (50/100/200) sloping downward. While a crossover above the 50-period MA could trigger a short-term bounce, the broader trend remains downward, with the 200-period MA acting as a critical floor.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line at 00:15 ET, signaling bearish momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory (below 30) around 05:30 ET but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound, suggesting weak buying interest. MACD remained negative through the 24-hour period, with no signs of a bullish crossover. The RSI’s inability to generate a strong bounce suggests a potential continuation of bearish bias in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained largely within the Bollinger Bands, with the exception of a brief excursion below the lower band at 05:30 ET. Volatility expanded after 18:00 ET, with the bands widening to reflect increased uncertainty in the market. Currently, price sits near the midline of the bands, indicating a potential period of consolidation before the next directional move. Traders may watch for a breakout above or below the bands for confirmation of a new trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a 24-hour high of 3.8B SHIB at 03:30 ET but failed to produce a convincing price rebound, indicating a lack of conviction in the short-term. Turnover also surged at this time, with ¥19.6 million in notional value exchanged, but subsequent volume quickly declined. Divergence between volume and price action suggests that the bearish move may continue unless a significant buying catalyst emerges. The 03:30 ET spike was followed by a period of consolidation, indicating traders are waiting for clearer signals.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute low (0.001487 JPY) and the previous high (0.00153 JPY), the 61.8% retracement level currently sits at 0.001515 JPY. Price has bounced near this level multiple times, suggesting it may offer temporary support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline is at 0.001506 JPY—matching the 24-hour close—indicating a potential floor for near-term price action. A break below the 38.2% level would likely extend the downward move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI oversold (RSI < 30) strategy aims to capture short-term rebounds when the pair shows signs of exhaustion. Given the current RSI behavior—repeated dips into oversold levels without triggering a strong rebound—the strategy may require a revised threshold or additional confirmation signals. For example, aligning the RSI signal with bullish divergence in the MACD or a close above the 50-period MA could improve accuracy. On the 15-minute chart, a bounce from the 0.001506 JPY level, if confirmed by volume and momentum, could serve as a strong entry point. However, the lack of follow-through in prior oversold rebounds suggests the strategy may need to be adapted to the current bearish context to avoid false signals.