SHIBJPY Market Overview: Volatility and Divergence Signal Mixed Near-Term Prospects

• SHIBJPY fell 0.18% over 24 hours, opening at 0.001550 and closing at 0.001488.
• Volatility increased sharply after 23:00 ET as price surged toward 0.001571 before reversing sharply lower.
• Volume spiked to 153.6 million at 23:45 ET, but price failed to hold above 0.001560.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 02:30–03:00 ET candle, signaling continued bearish momentum.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.001496 acted as temporary support, but failed to hold into the following session.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001550 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.001571 by 23:45 ET before retreating to a low of 0.001383. The pair closed at 0.001488 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 6,480,720,370 tokens, while notional turnover reached approximately ¥11.8 million, based on average price.

Price moved in a volatile range for much of the day, with a clear shift toward bearish sentiment occurring between 02:00 and 04:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during this period as price opened at 0.001497, closed at 0.001494, and fell below the prior candle's low of 0.001507. This confirmed a shift in momentum and set the stage for further downside. A key 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period line, reinforcing bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the 15-minute time frame, with price testing the upper band around 0.001571 before falling back within the band range. The 20-period RSI moved into oversold territory briefly near 0.001482, but failed to show a meaningful bounce, suggesting weak follow-through in bullish buying. Notably, volume and turnover diverged after 05:00 ET, with declining price failing to attract commensurate buying volume. This divergence suggests waning conviction in the current trend.

The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 0.001496 acted as a temporary support point, but buyers failed to step in with meaningful strength, allowing price to fall further into the 0.001480–0.001485 range by mid-morning. This area is critical as it sits near the 50-period moving average on the daily chart. A retest of this level could provide a near-term floor or trigger further downside if breached with strong volume.

The price may consolidate around 0.001485–0.001490 in the short term, but with bearish momentum intact and no clear reversal signal, further downside into 0.001470–0.001475 remains a possibility. Investors should remain cautious about entering long positions without a definitive reversal pattern or a breakout above 0.001510.

A backtest strategy based on the RSI of SHIBJPY is hindered by a data-source error when attempting to retrieve the daily 14-period RSI for this ticker. This likely stems from the unavailability of the SHIBJPY pair on the technical indicator API. A potential workaround includes using the SHIB/USD pair as a proxy, given that the RSI is scale-invariant and would provide comparable signals with minimal drift due to USD/JPY fluctuations. Alternatively, a manual in-house calculation of the RSI using the raw price data is feasible, albeit with an added step. If the standard backtest assumes RSI < 30 as an oversold entry and RSI > 30 as an exit trigger, then the strategy can be adapted using one of the above methods to ensure accurate signal generation.