SHIBJPY Market Overview: Mixed 24-Hour Move Amid Fluctuating Volume

• SHIBJPY opened at 0.001597 and closed at 0.001595 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• Price fluctuated between 0.001591 and 0.001639 with a 2.14% intraday swing.
• A bullish reversal attempt failed in the early hours; bears regained control after 06:00 ET.
• Volume peaked at 212.41 million around 02:15 ET but declined sharply afterward.
• Turnover patterns suggest limited conviction from both buyers and sellers.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001597 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001595 on 2025-10-27 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 0.001639 and a low of 0.001591, with a total volume of 3,363,388,414 units traded over 24 hours. Turnover amounted to approximately $5,425,609 (based on average price), with volume surging above 200 million in early hours before tapering.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLC data reveals a fragmented structure, with a failed bullish breakout between 22:15 and 02:30 ET, where SHIBJPY surged to 0.001639. However, a bearish reversal emerged after 06:00 ET as sellers pushed the pair back below 0.00161. Key support levels appear to cluster around 0.00160 and 0.001595, while resistance is forming near 0.001625 and 0.001635. Notable bearish patterns include a bearish harami at 09:00 ET and multiple long lower shadows after 05:30 ET, indicating rejection at higher levels.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart show a narrowing divergence between price and the 20-period line, suggesting weakening momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line after 04:30 ET, signaling a potential short-term bearish shift. On daily charts, the 50-period MA sits above the 200-period line, preserving a long-term bullish trend, though the 100-period MA is showing signs of flattening.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 04:00 ET, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The histogram contracted during the afternoon hours, signaling reduced selling pressure. RSI remained within the neutral zone (30–70) for most of the day, but it dipped below 50 after 07:00 ET and lingered near 45–47, suggesting a weak but not overbought/oversold market.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Band range for most of the session, with a brief expansion between 22:15 and 03:00 ET. A contraction phase followed, narrowing volatility to below 0.000003. At close, the price sat just above the lower band, indicating a potential test of key support levels in the coming hours.

Volume & Turnover

The session saw strong volume early in the Asian session, particularly around 02:15 ET with a surge to 212.41 million units. However, turnover dropped to under 50 million after 07:00 ET, signaling reduced conviction in the bearish move. Divergence between volume and price was evident in the last 12 hours, with price falling but volume declining, hinting at potential exhaustion in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels drawn from the 0.001591 to 0.001639 swing show SHIBJPY currently at the 38.2% retrace level. A break below 0.00160 would target the 61.8% at ~0.001589, while a rebound above 0.001625 may test 0.001635 as resistance. Intraday 15-minute swings also suggest a possible 38.2% retest at 0.001613.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified patterns and price behavior, the SHIBJPY pair could benefit from a backtest using a bullish engulfing candle strategy. This pattern, identified when a larger bullish candle follows a smaller bearish one, often signals a potential trend reversal. Applying this to SHIBJPY’s data, particularly around the 22:15–02:30 ET period where a bearish breakout occurred, could help validate entry and exit points for a 48-hour holding period. If the symbol or data are confirmed, the backtest could provide further insight into the strategy's efficacy in this volatile market.