SHIBJPY Market Overview: Bullish Momentum with Overbought Caution

• SHIBJPY surged 6.4% in 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour high at 0.002156.
• Strong volume expansion observed during the 9:30–10:30 ET window, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI oversold conditions reversed sharply, entering overbought territory late afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands showed a narrow contraction at 17:00 ET followed by a breakout.
• Key resistance appears at 0.002160, with potential for a pullback into 0.002135–0.002140 support.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001962 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of 0.002194. The pair closed at 0.002156 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-13. Total volume reached 13,167,794,606.0 SHIB, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,844,649,661.72 based on an assumed SHIB value of $0.0000000167 (as of 2025).

Structure & Formations

SHIBJPY formed a distinct bullish continuation pattern in the late afternoon and early evening hours of 2025-09-12, with a long green candle at 17:00–17:15 ET followed by a series of higher closes. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.002147 was retested multiple times and held as support, suggesting short-term buyers remain active. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged briefly at 08:45–09:00 ET but was quickly negated by higher closes. A morning doji at 02:30–02:45 ET signaled indecision, followed by a consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA late morning, forming a golden cross. By 20:00 ET, the 50-period MA caught up to the price, indicating a fast rally. Daily MAs (50/100/200) suggest the price is above the 50- and 100-day averages, indicating a medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp positive divergence starting at 20:00 ET, with the line crossing above the signal line, indicating strong bullish momentum. The RSI moved from 27 at 02:00 ET to 72 by 10:30 ET, indicating overbought conditions. A bearish RSI divergence appeared briefly at 15:30 ET, but the move was short-lived as buying pressure reasserted.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear contraction at 17:00 ET, followed by a breakout above the upper band within 30 minutes. The price spent most of the session inside the bands, with a brief touch of the upper band at 09:30 and 10:15 ET. The 20-period standard deviation remained below 0.000012 until the final hour, indicating controlled volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 09:30–10:30 ET, peaking at 589 million SHIB and correlating with a $128 million notional turnover. This was a significant increase from morning levels, with price and volume action aligning closely. A divergence between volume and price occurred briefly at 15:30–16:00 ET, as the price corrected while volume remained strong, indicating possible accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.002117 acted as a key support, while the 61.8% level at 0.002147 held three times over the day. Short-term swings on the 15-minute chart also formed retracement levels at 0.002165 and 0.002135, which appear as potential pivot points for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong momentum observed and key Fibonacci levels acting as support and resistance, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout-based approach. A long entry could be triggered on a close above the 0.002160 level with a stop-loss placed below the 0.002135 Fibonacci support. A trailing stop or fixed take-profit at 0.002194 would align with the observed high. The MACD golden cross and RSI divergence also offer timing signals for entry and exit.