SHIBJPY Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis for 2025-10-08

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• SHIBJPY traded in a 24-hour range of 0.001839–0.001880, closing near intraday support.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 0.001880, signaling potential reversal.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, followed by a sharp contraction and consolidation.
• Volume surged at key swing levels but dropped during price breaks, indicating mixed conviction.
• RSI approached overbought levels mid-session but retreated, suggesting waning bullish momentum.

Price Action Summary

The SHIBJPY pair opened at 0.001857 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.001880 by 20:45 ET, and closed at 0.001861 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 990,762,000 units, with a notional turnover of $1,858,000. Price action featured a sharp bullish spike into overbought territory, followed by a pullback into a tight consolidation range.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around 0.001860 and 0.001850, with the 0.001847 level acting as a temporary floor during a sell-off. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 0.001880 high, indicating short-term bearish bias. A doji appeared at the 0.001878 level, hinting at indecision. The 0.001866–0.001870 range became a recurring resistance, with price failing to break through consistently.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked early in the session, with SHIBJPY reaching the upper Bollinger band at 0.001880. However, the pair then entered a contraction phase, staying within a narrow 15-minute band range from 0.001850 to 0.001866 for much of the latter half of the period. This suggests a potential breakout or breakdown is on the horizon.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.001861) and 50-period MA (0.001858) crossed in a bullish manner, forming a potential golden cross. However, the 50 MA acted as a ceiling for much of the session. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) are not directly visible in this data but would be critical in determining the longer-term trend, as price appears to be consolidating near a key multi-day moving average level.

Momentum and RSI

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached a high of 65 during the 20:00–20:45 ET window, entering overbought territory before retreating below 50. This indicates a possible topping process, with bearish momentum gaining traction in the latter half of the session. MACD showed a bearish crossover as momentum shifted from bullish to bearish.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at 0.001880 (midnight ET) and again at 0.001862 (early morning), with a sharp drop in turnover during the consolidation phase. A divergence emerged between price and volume, where lower volume accompanied price declines, suggesting weakening bearish pressure. This may lead to a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 0.001839–0.001880 swing, the 61.8% level (0.001862) was a key consolidation point. The 38.2% level (0.001859) held briefly before price resumed its descent. Daily retracement levels would need to be assessed with higher timeframe data, but short-term retracement levels appear to have capped SHIBJPY's movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying bearish engulfing patterns at overbought RSI levels (above 65) on the 15-minute timeframe. Entering a short position at the close of the engulfing candle with a stop-loss above the recent high and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (0.001859) could be a viable setup. Given the volume contraction following the pattern and the RSI reversal, this strategy would align well with the observed price action and technical conditions.

Outlook and Risk

While short-term bearish momentum appears to have taken hold, the lack of clear breakouts and divergences in volume suggest the market is in a state of indecision. A break below 0.001850 could trigger a test of the 0.001843 level, while a retest of 0.001866 may offer a near-term opportunity for longs. Investors should remain cautious, as high volatility and thin volume may lead to choppy price action.