SHIBJPY Market Overview for 2025-09-22

• SHIBJPY opened at 0.001908, peaked at 0.001913, and closed at 0.001792, reflecting a volatile 24-hour bearish trend.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions and bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further downside.
• Volume surged during the sharp decline, confirming bearish conviction, while Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility.
• Key support near 0.001762 may be tested as price continues to retrace from recent highs.
• Downtrend appears to align with Fibonacci levels, with 0.001762 and 0.001802 marking potential turning points.

The 24-hour candle for SHIBJPY opened at 0.001908 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.001913, and closed at 0.001792 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume for the period was 9.89 billion units, with notional turnover of 17.97 million JPY. Price action shows a strong bearish reversal from early resistance levels and has settled below key Fibonacci and moving averages.

Structure & Formations

Price has formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the early high of 0.001913, followed by a strong pullback. Key support levels appear at 0.001762, 0.001802, and 0.001846, while resistance is at 0.001865 and 0.001890. A deep pullback below 0.001762 would signal a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price is below both the 20SMA (0.001812) and 50SMA (0.001828). On a broader scale, the 50DMA (0.001885), 100DMA (0.001902), and 200DMA (0.001910) suggest a bearish bias as price continues to lag.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence, while the RSI (14) is in oversold territory at 27, indicating potential for a rebound. However, the RSI is unlikely to move above 40 without a strong reversal in volume and price.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the downward leg, with price dropping below the lower band on several 15-minute intervals. The widening bands confirm the heightened volatility and bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the decline from 0.001913 to 0.0018, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at 0.001802. Notional turnover increased in line with volume, confirming bearish conviction. Divergence is not evident between volume and price at this stage.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the swing high at 0.001913 to the low at 0.001762, 38.2% and 61.8% levels align with 0.001846 and 0.001802 respectively. Price has tested the 61.8% level and is now below it, suggesting a deeper pullback is likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a break of the 50SMA with confirmation via bearish divergence in RSI and MACD. Stop-loss is set at the nearest support level, and take-profit targets are set at key Fibonacci retracements and moving average levels. Given today’s action, this strategy would have been triggered early in the 24-hour window and held until the 12:00 ET close. The setup showed strong signal alignment with the eventual price action, suggesting the strategy could be viable for short-term bearish trades in low-correlation altcoins.

Looking ahead, SHIBJPY may test the 0.001762 level in the next 24 hours, with RSI potentially rebounding into the 30–40 range. A sustained bounce above 0.001802 would signal a reversal, but bearish momentum remains strong. Investors should monitor volume and divergence closely for early signs of reversal.