Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) Market Overview: Bullish Reversal Amid Rising Volatility

• Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) formed a bullish reversal pattern after a sharp decline.
• Price bounced off the 0.001842–0.001853 support range with strong volume.
• MACD and RSI signaled a potential overbought condition near 0.001926.
• Bollinger Bands widened, suggesting rising volatility and trend potential.
• Volume surged in the last 10 hours, aligning with price strength.

15-Minute Price Behavior

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001867 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a low of 0.001842 before closing at 0.001936 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The 24-hour trading range extended from 0.001842 to 0.001941, with a total volume of 5,410,021,600 units and a notional turnover of 18.64 million JPY. The price appears to have reversed from a key support cluster, with a potential continuation of bullish momentum in play.

The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern near the 0.001853 level and a strong pinbar on the 0.001842–0.001856 range suggest a possible shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Price is now testing the 0.001926–0.001939 resistance corridor, where a breakout could extend the move higher.

Supports and Resistances

Key support levels have been established at 0.001842–0.001853, with a critical psychological level forming at 0.001842. Resistance now appears to be clustering between 0.001926 and 0.001939, with the 0.001939 level showing signs of being a short-term ceiling. A break above 0.001941 may signal a continuation of bullish momentum toward 0.001950–0.001960. A retest below 0.001853 could reignite bearish pressure.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending upward, supporting the recent bullish move. The 20SMA is currently at 0.001892 and the 50SMA at 0.001884, both below the current price.

The MACD crossed into positive territory with increasing divergence, while the RSI moved into overbought territory, hitting 72–74 in the last few hours. This suggests that while bullish momentum remains strong, a short-term pullback may be due.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening from a tight 0.000005 range early in the session to a broader 0.000010 range. SHIBJPY closed near the upper band at 0.001936, which reinforces the potential for a bullish continuation. A break above 0.001941 would suggest the price is likely to remain in the upper half of the bands for the next 12–24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.001842 to 0.001941, the 61.8% level is at 0.001910, which aligns closely with the 50SMA. The 78.6% level is near 0.001925, a critical area where the RSI has already shown signs of saturation. A strong close above 0.001930 would validate a move toward the 100% level at 0.001941 and beyond.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current alignment of Fibonacci levels, RSI overbought signals, and MACD divergence, a backtest strategy may be constructed around a breakout above 0.001941. A long position triggered on a close above 0.001941 with a stop-loss below 0.001925 could target the 0.001950–0.001960 range. The 20SMA and Bollinger Bands support the thesis that volatility and bullish momentum are still intact. If combined with a volume filter (e.g., volume above 500 million), the strategy may offer better risk-adjusted returns in a 12–24-hour window.