Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) Market Overview – 2025-10-07

• SHIBJPY closed lower at 0.001930 after testing 0.001952, showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded through the session, with a large-volume bearish reversal pattern near 0.001952.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions by close, while MACD turned bearish with negative divergence.
• Volume spiked during the early ET hours, but price failed to confirm bullish follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion as SHIBJPY broke below the midline, hinting at a possible short-term trend reversal.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001938 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.001952, and closed at 0.001930 at 2025-10-07 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.001848 and 0.001952 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was approximately 13.65 billion SHIB, with a notional turnover of roughly ¥12.77 million.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a bearish reversal pattern at 0.001952, where a large-volume green candle was followed by a red one with a lower close. This structure suggests potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. Key support levels developed around 0.001930 and 0.001916, while resistance remains at 0.001945 and 0.001952. A long lower shadow at 0.001949 to 0.001942 hints at a potential test of these support levels. A bullish engulfing pattern is also visible near 0.001935, but it was quickly invalidated.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, confirming a bearish bias. The 50-period line provided a temporary floor near 0.001936–0.001940 during the late ET hours. Daily data shows the 50DMA and 200DMA are converging, with the 50DMA at 0.001938 and the 200DMA at 0.001940, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead. Price remains just below the 200DMA, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative mid-session, forming a bearish crossover with the signal line. A bearish histogram emerged, signaling deteriorating bullish momentum. RSI reached an oversold reading near 30 at the close, but this could be a result of overcorrective bearish action rather than a reliable reversal signal. No overbought conditions occurred during the session, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as SHIBJPY broke below the 20-period midline, reaching the lower band at 0.001930. This suggests a short-term bearish breakout with potential continuation into the lower band. The upper band hovered around 0.001952, which acted as resistance before the reversal. Volatility increased during the late ET hours, with the 20-period standard deviation rising to a 24-hour peak.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 17:30–19:30 ET hours, with a peak at 0.001951–0.001944. The notional turnover hit its highest point at around 0.001952, but the price failed to close above that level, indicating volume divergence. As price declined, volume also tailed off, supporting the idea of bearish exhaustion. The total turnover of approximately ¥12.77 million aligned with the price action, showing no major divergence between volume and direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing high at 0.001952 and the low at 0.001930, key levels include 38.2% at 0.001942 and 61.8% at 0.001935. These levels appear to have acted as temporary pivots during the session. The 0.001935 level coincided with the 50SMA, reinforcing its significance. A further decline could see SHIBJPY test the 0.001916–0.001848 range, with 0.001900 potentially acting as a deeper support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on SHIBJPY when the price breaks below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the most recent 15-minute high. A take-profit target could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous day’s swing high and low. This approach leverages the bearish momentum and key support levels observed in the session, using both moving averages and Fibonacci projections for structured risk management. The bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence further support the strategy's timing and confirmation signals.