Shiba Inu/Yen Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) traded in a tight range today, with a 24-hour high of ¥0.001869 and a low of ¥0.001825.
• A bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 23:15 ET, followed by a failed follow-through, suggesting indecision.
• Volatility increased during the Asian session, with price breaking above ¥0.001865 before consolidating.
• RSI reached 65, signaling moderate overbought conditions, while MACD remained flat.
• Turnover surged above ¥4.2B during the late Tokyo and early Singapore hours, hinting at potential accumulation.

Daily Market Snapshot

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at ¥0.00183 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of ¥0.001869, a low of ¥0.001825, and closed at ¥0.001832 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total volume was 2,127,662,736 tokens, with a notional turnover of ¥3.97 billion. Price action displayed a range-bound profile with late-day volatility.

Structure and Formations

Price found initial support near ¥0.001835 and resistance around ¥0.001865–0.001869, where multiple attempts to break above met selling pressure. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at ¥0.001853–0.001866 (23:15–00:00 ET), followed by a bearish reversal with a long upper shadow at ¥0.001869. A doji at ¥0.001864 (03:30–04:45 ET) signaled indecision. Key support levels currently appear at ¥0.001845 and ¥0.001835, while resistance is near ¥0.001865 and ¥0.001870.

Moving Averages and Trend Signals

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below ¥0.001850 during the consolidation phase, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA remains above the 100-period MA, indicating a neutral-to-bullish bias over the mid-term. No clear crossover from the 200-period MA was observed, reinforcing the range-bound narrative.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

RSI reached 65 around ¥0.001865 during the Asian session before retracting, signaling overbought conditions without a full reversal. MACD showed a neutral profile with a flat histogram, indicating mixed momentum. A bearish divergence emerged between price and RSI at the high of ¥0.001869, suggesting potential for a near-term pullback.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the Asian session, reflecting increased volatility. Price broke above the upper band at ¥0.001869 but quickly fell back into the band’s range. During the consolidation phase, price sat near the lower band, indicating oversold levels at ¥0.001835–0.001832. The 15-minute band width peaked at 0.6% during the afternoon, suggesting heightened near-term activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing high at ¥0.001869 and the swing low at ¥0.001825, key retracement levels are ¥0.001851 (38.2%), ¥0.001842 (50%), and ¥0.001835 (61.8%). Price found support near ¥0.001842 and ¥0.001835, aligning with these levels. On a 15-minute chart, retracements at ¥0.001860 and ¥0.001855 also saw clustered activity, suggesting potential continuation or retests.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on identifying consolidation phases followed by a breakout above a key resistance or below a key support level. It combines Fibonacci retracements with RSI divergence to time entries. A long bias is triggered when price breaks above the 61.8% retracement level with RSI above 50, and a short bias is triggered when price falls below the 38.2% retracement level with RSI below 40. Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set at the nearest Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels. Given today’s price action, a breakout above ¥0.001865 with confirmation from RSI could trigger a long bias, while a breakdown below ¥0.001835 could signal a short entry.