Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) Market Overview

• Price fluctuated within a tight range amid moderate volatility.
• Key resistance formed around 1.268e-05, with support at 1.245e-05.
• Volume surged in late ET hours, indicating short-term interest.
• RSI oscillated between oversold and neutral, suggesting indecision.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction followed by mild expansion after 20:00 ET.

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at 1.24e-05 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.271e-05 and as low as 1.234e-05, closing at 1.267e-05 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume reached 261.76 billion SHIB, and notional turnover stood at $33.83 million over the 24-hour window. The pair exhibited moderate price consolidation with no clear trend emerging.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a series of indecisive candlestick patterns, including doji and spinning tops, particularly in the late evening and overnight hours, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged briefly around 19:45 ET, followed by a bullish harami around 23:45 ET. These conflicting signals suggest the market is testing key levels without a clear directional bias. Critical support levels were identified at 1.245e-05 and 1.235e-05, while 1.268e-05 and 1.271e-05 acted as key resistances.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained above the 20 and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, suggesting some short-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line near 02:00 ET, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period lines remained in a close cluster, with price trading just above the 200-period MA, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a mixed signal throughout the session, with the histogram fluctuating between positive and negative territory. A bullish crossover occurred around 20:00 ET, but it was short-lived. RSI oscillated between 30 and 60, with a brief dip into oversold territory at 05:45 ET, failing to confirm a strong rebound. This suggests the market remains in a neutral or consolidating phase, with no clear momentum either up or down.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was generally moderate, with Bollinger Bands narrowing between 18:00 and 20:00 ET, followed by a gradual expansion as price tested both the upper and lower bands. Price closed near the upper band in late ET hours, suggesting short-term bullish pressure. However, the narrow consolidation seen earlier in the day indicates a possible period of reduced volatility or a potential breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked around 19:15 ET and 23:45 ET, coinciding with price reaching key resistance and support levels. These spikes suggest increased participation at critical junctures. Notional turnover remained relatively steady throughout the day, with no significant divergence from volume patterns. However, the largest turnover occurred at 19:15 ET, corresponding to a sharp move to the 1.271e-05 level, indicating strong institutional or large-cap activity at that time.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.234e-05 to 1.271e-05, key levels include 1.259e-05 (38.2%) and 1.250e-05 (61.8%). Price held above 1.259e-05 during most of the day, indicating that the 38.2% level acted as a minor support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels aligned with key psychological barriers, and price held just above the 61.8% level, suggesting some short-term stability.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a short-term trading strategy, one might consider entering a long position when price breaks above the 1.268e-05 resistance level, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and increased volume. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 1.262e-05 support level, with a target at 1.271e-05. Conversely, short positions could be triggered on a break below 1.250e-05 with a bearish MACD crossover. This approach leverages both price action and technical indicators to balance risk and reward, aligning with the observed volatility and structure during the 24-hour window.