Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) Market Overview: 2025-10-09 12:00 ET

• Price declined from a high of $1.234e-05 to a low of $1.183e-05, closing at $1.203e-05
• Strong volume activity in the morning ET session fueled a sharp decline
• RSI approached oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential near-term bounce
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price at ~1σ below the 20-period mean
• No clear reversal pattern emerged, but bearish momentum appears to be waning

The SHIBUSDT pair opened at $1.220e-05 on 2025-10-08 at 16:00 ET and closed at $1.203e-05 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, following a 24-hour decline. The pair reached a high of $1.247e-05 and a low of $1.183e-05. Total volume amounted to ~117.8 billion SHIB, with notional turnover of $14.3 billion.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is currently around $1.209e-05, with the 50-period at $1.214e-05, suggesting bearish short-term momentum. Daily averages are less relevant given the recent bearish move, though the 50-day appears to now be a strong resistance at ~$1.220e-05. The price is now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the last high to low, which appears to be at ~$1.195e-05. This suggests potential for a bounce from the lower retracement levels, though a break below that could signal a test of the next level at ~$1.180e-05.

The RSI has declined to ~25, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, without a strong reversal candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing), a bounce cannot be confirmed. Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price currently sitting ~1σ below the 20-period moving average, suggesting a tightening channel and potential for a breakout either higher or lower. MACD is negative with bearish divergence, though the histogram has been flattening in recent hours, hinting that bearish momentum may be slowing.

The bearish volume-driven move was concentrated between 17:00–20:00 ET, with a sharp drop in price and rising volume. However, in the following 10 hours (20:00–06:00 ET), volume declined while price bounced slightly, indicating waning bearish pressure. This divergence suggests a potential consolidation phase is forming. Investors should watch for a potential test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.195e-05, as a bounce from this level could trigger a short-term rebound. However, a break below this level may open the door to a new bearish trend. Over the next 24 hours, SHIBUSDT may find support around $1.195e-05 or $1.180e-05, but traders should remain cautious of a continuation of the downtrend if no reversal pattern emerges.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop loss placed below the recent swing low and a target at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Given the current setup, a long bias could be considered if a bullish reversal pattern forms at the 61.8% level. However, the strategy would need to be tested against multiple 15-minute candles to assess its success rate in similar volatility environments.