Shiba Inu’s Technical and On-Chain Indicators Suggest a High-Probability Breakout

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has long been a speculative asset in the crypto market, but recent technical and on-chain signals suggest a potential inflection point. As of September 2025, the token appears to be consolidating within a long-term descending wedge pattern—a classic bullish reversal formation—while on-chain metrics reveal a shift in investor behavior that could catalyze a breakout. This analysis examines the interplay between momentum-driven accumulation and market psychology to assess SHIB’s trajectory.

Technical Indicators Signal a Potential Breakout

SHIB’s price action has formed a descending wedge pattern, a technical formation often preceding a sharp upward move. According to data from Brave New Coin, the token is currently testing a critical resistance level at $0.00001338, which, if breached, could trigger a rally toward $0.0000329—a price point just below its December 2024 high [4]. Momentum indicators further reinforce this narrative: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44.72, placing SHIB in neutral territory and suggesting a potential rebound from oversold conditions [3]. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has flattened, indicating stalled bearish momentum, while the Stochastic oscillator shows the coin is in oversold territory [3].

A broader technical analysis highlights Fibonacci retracement levels as a key factor. If SHIB holds above $0.00001200—a critical support level—it could validate a 144% rally toward $0.0000329 [4]. Analysts like Javon Marks have also identified a regular bull divergence in the MACD Histogram, a pattern historically associated with 570% price surges [1]. However, caution is warranted: SHIB remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and a breakdown below $0.00001200 could reignite bearish sentiment [2].

On-Chain Metrics Reveal Accumulation and Whale Activity

On-chain data paints a mixed but intriguing picture. SHIB holders have demonstrated strong retention, with a 96% retention rate over the past 30 days, signaling growing confidence among retail investors [1]. The number of SHIB holders has also increased to 1.53 million, suggesting broadening adoption [1]. However, whale activity remains a double-edged sword. While large transfers—such as the 300% surge in transfer volume on August 25—indicate potential bottoming activity, they also highlight the risk of sudden dumping by large holders [3].

Exchange inflows have significantly exceeded outflows, with whales offloading shares at a concerning rate [1]. This dynamic creates a tug-of-war between accumulation and distribution. On one hand, retail retention and increased holder count suggest a maturing market; on the other, whale-driven volatility could destabilize SHIB’s price action if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Market Psychology: Neutral Sentiment with Greed on the Horizon

Market psychology metrics add nuance to the analysis. The Fear & Greed Index for SHIB stands at 52, a neutral reading that masks underlying volatility [4]. While the broader market remains cautious, SHIB-specific indicators show a shift toward greed, with volume and volatility metrics trending upward [4]. This divergence suggests that investors are beginning to price in a bullish scenario, particularly if SHIB breaks through $0.00001338.

However, structural challenges persist. SHIB’s massive circulating supply—over 1 quadrillion tokens—remains a headwind for meaningful price appreciation. Additionally, the absence of a repeat of Vitalik Buterin’s 2021 burn event—a catalyst that once drove SHIB’s price to $0.00008845—limits upside potential [2]. Analysts project a 5.34% price increase by October 6, 2025, but this assumes stable macroeconomic conditions and sustained buying pressure [5].

Conclusion: A High-Probability Breakout with Caveats

SHIB’s technical and on-chain indicators present a compelling case for a high-probability breakout. The convergence of a descending wedge pattern, oversold momentum metrics, and strong holder retention creates a favorable setup for a rally. However, the token’s reliance on whale activity and structural supply challenges necessitate a cautious approach. Investors should monitor the $0.00001338 resistance level closely, as a breakout here could validate the 144% Fibonacci target. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.00001200 would likely reignite bearish sentiment.

For momentum-driven investors, SHIB offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The key to success lies in timing the breakout and managing exposure to macroeconomic risks. As the crypto market enters the final quarter of 2025, SHIB’s performance could serve as a barometer for broader risk appetite in the sector.

Source:
[1] Shiba Inu Diamond Hands Are Refusing To Sell, Bulls Eye [https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1101645-20250906]
[2] SHIB Price Prediction 2025: Navigating Bearish Signals and [https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/ByteHunterZ/892675]
[3] Shiba Inu Sees 300% Surge In This Major Metric, Is The [https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1077613-20250829]
[4] Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction [https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/shiba-inu-shib-price-prediction-shiba-inu-breaks-chains-of-consolidation-how-far-can-it-run]
[5] Shiba Inu Price Prediction 2025, 2026-2030 [https://coincodex.com/crypto/shiba-inu/price-prediction/]