Shiba Inu's Supply Dynamics and Price Resilience: Is a Reversal at Hand?

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme-token phenomenon that once dominated crypto headlines, has entered a critical juncture in its price trajectory. As the token's supply dynamics and technical indicators align in a delicate balance, investors are left questioning whether SHIB is poised for a reversal or another leg down. This analysis examines the interplay between on-chain burn activity and key technical support levels to assess the likelihood of a sustained recovery.

Supply Dynamics: Burn Activity and Scarcity Signals

SHIB's tokenomics have long relied on aggressive burn campaigns to reduce its massive circulating supply. In November 2025, the token's burn rate exhibited dramatic volatility. A surge of 1,086% in the first week of the month saw 15.97 billion SHIB destroyed in 24 hours, pushing the total burned supply to 410.75 trillion tokens-a reduction of over 41% from its initial 1 quadrillion supply. However, this momentum faltered by late November, with weekly burns plummeting by 94% to 46.6 million SHIB.

While these burns theoretically enhance scarcity, their impact on price remains muted. Analysts note that even with a 367% increase in burn rate earlier in the year, the weekly removal of 631 million SHIB pales in comparison to the token's 522 trillion circulating supply. This suggests that while supply reduction is a foundational element of SHIB's narrative, it alone cannot drive significant price appreciation without sustained large-scale burns or broader market adoption.

Technical Resilience: Fibonacci Levels and Trendline Breakouts

Despite the waning burn rate, SHIB's price action in November 2025 has shown early signs of resilience. The token recently pushed above a descending trendline that had defined a months-long downtrend, a move highlighted by traders like TraderSZ as a potential reversal signal. Currently trading around $0.000008148, SHIB has stabilized near the 1.0 Fibonacci level at $0.0000084, though higher timeframes continue to exert downward pressure. According to analysis, key resistance levels loom ahead.

A break above the 0.786 retracement at $0.0000088 and the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci zones could validate a broader recovery. Meanwhile, historical support at $0.0000067 remains a critical watchpoint. If SHIB retraces to this level, it could attract renewed buying interest, as this zone has historically acted as a cycle bottom.

Technical indicators further complicate the outlook. The Chande Momentum Oscillator hovering near -30 suggests SHIB is in oversold territory, yet momentum has yet to decisively shift in favor of buyers. Futures flow data also reveals persistent net outflows, signaling caution among derivatives traders.

Macro Factors and Competitor Dynamics

Beyond on-chain and technical factors, SHIB's trajectory is influenced by broader market conditions. Analysts like Kledji Cuni emphasize that macroeconomic trends and liquidity dynamics in derivatives markets play a more dominant role in price action than isolated burn events. Additionally, rising competition from emerging meme tokens like Pepenode could divert attention and capital from SHIB, complicating its recovery.

Longer-term forecasts, however, remain cautiously optimistic. Changelly projects SHIB could reach $0.000009 by late November 2025 and climb to $0.000010–$0.000011 by early 2026, assuming current trends persist. These projections hinge on sustained supply reductions and a broader risk-on sentiment in the crypto market.

Conclusion: A Fragile Path Forward

SHIB's potential reversal hinges on a delicate convergence of factors. While aggressive burns have reduced supply, their limited scale relative to the token's total issuance means price resilience must be driven by other forces. Technically, a breakout above key Fibonacci levels and sustained buying pressure could catalyze a recovery, but oversold conditions and derivatives outflows suggest caution.

For SHIB to achieve meaningful upside, it must not only reclaim critical resistance levels but also demonstrate renewed demand in a competitive meme-token landscape. Until then, the token remains in a precarious balancing act between scarcity-driven optimism and macro-driven skepticism.