Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Momentum: On-Chain Accumulation and Technical Catalysts Signal Potential Breakout

The On-Chain Story: Whales, Burns, and Supply Dynamics

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has entered a critical phase of on-chain activity that suggests a potential inflection point for its price. Whale activity has been the most striking catalyst. In early 2025, a single GnosisSafeProxy wallet transferred 3.36 trillion SHIB ($51.15 million) to an unmarked wallet, leaving the original address with a zero balance. This move, coupled with 13,381 ETH ($35.2 million) in the receiving wallet, signals strategic accumulation by large holders, according to The Currency Analytics.

The trend intensified in April 2025, when 18.51 trillion SHIB ($7.75 million) changed hands in a 24-hour period-a 95.91% surge in large transactions, according to news.shib.io. Such activity typically precedes price action, as whales often build positions before market-wide momentum. Notably, 0.15% of SHIB holders control 58.5% of the supply, while over 77% of addresses have held SHIB for more than a year. This concentration and long-term retention suggest a resilient base of believers, even amid short-term volatility.

Burns have also become a deflationary force. In August 2025, SHIB's burn rate spiked 48,244%, removing 87 million tokens in 24 hours. By September, the rate surged again-1,932% on September 15 and 396.96% on September 19-removing 2.19 million and 1.16 million tokens, respectively. These burns, combined with whale accumulation, are shrinking SHIB's circulating supply, creating a narrative of scarcity.

However, not all signals are bullish. In late September, top wallets were observed dumping SHIB for alternative meme coins like Little Pepe (LILPEPE), indicating shifting capital flows. This highlights a key risk: SHIB's dominance in the meme coin space is under pressure from newer, more speculative projects.

Technical Catalysts: Breakouts, Divergences, and Uptober Hopes

From a technical perspective, SHIB's chart has shown mixed signals. A double bottom pattern emerged in August 2025, with a potential bullish breakout above the $0.0000155 resistance level, according to an OnTheNode analysis. That analysis noted the pattern was reinforced by a 181% surge in burn rates and whale buying, suggesting institutional-like confidence in SHIB's future.

By October 2025, SHIB entered a consolidation phase, trading between $0.0000123 and $0.00001262. Technical indicators painted a cautiously optimistic picture:
- Bullish divergence in the RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggested weakening bearish momentum.
- Chaikin Money Flow turned positive, indicating inflows into the asset.
- A golden cross (50-day EMA crossing above 200-day EMA) hinted at a potential trend reversal.

Yet, the price remained stagnant, testing key resistance levels. This "sideways action" is common in accumulation phases, where large holders buy dips without triggering broad retail participation. Historically, SHIB has shown a 213% average gain in October over the past four years, a pattern dubbed "Uptober." If SHIB breaks above $0.00001262, it could trigger a parabolic move fueled by both technical and on-chain catalysts.

Short-Term Outlook: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

The interplay of on-chain and technical factors creates a highly volatile environment for SHIB. On one hand, whale accumulation, burn surges, and bullish divergences point to a potential breakout. On the other, declining trading volume and capital flight to rival meme coins signal fragility.

A critical test will come in the next 30 days. If SHIB fails to break above $0.0000155, the double bottom pattern will collapse, and bearish pressure could reignite. Conversely, a successful breakout-paired with continued whale buying-could see SHIB retest $0.00002, a level last seen in mid-2024.

Investors should also monitor September's burn anomalies. While the 1,581% surge in burn rate, according to OKX, is impressive, it coincided with a 1.61 billion SHIB transfer from Kraken to an unknown wallet, raising questions about whether burns are being used to mask large-scale dumping.

Conclusion: Positioning for a Potential Uptober Rally

Shiba Inu's on-chain activity and technical setup present a compelling case for short-term optimism. Whale accumulation, deflationary burns, and historical Uptober patterns all suggest a possible rally. However, the risks are non-trivial: low trading volume, capital flight to LILPEPE, and the lack of a clear catalyst beyond accumulation could leave SHIB vulnerable to a sharp correction.

For risk-tolerant investors, a small position in SHIB could be justified as a speculative bet on Uptober. But for the broader market, patience is key. As the saying goes in crypto: "Whales build, retail follows-but not always."