Is Shiba Inu (SHIB) Poised for a 60–70% Breakout as Its Falling Wedge Nears Completion?

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) token has long been a subject of speculation, but recent technical and on-chain developments suggest a potential inflection point. As the cryptocurrency approaches the culmination of a large falling wedge pattern-a classic bullish reversal formation-investors are scrutinizing whether this could catalyze a 60–70% price surge. This analysis delves into the technical and on-chain signals to assess the validity of such a scenario.

Technical Analysis: A Falling Wedge and Emerging Momentum

The falling wedge pattern, characterized by descending converging trendlines, has emerged as a critical focus for SHIB traders. According to technical analysts, SHIB's price rebounded from a low of $0.00000684 to a high of $0.000010, forming a structure that historically precedes upward breakouts. A successful breakout above key resistance levels, such as $0.0000099, could propel the token toward $0.000014-a 56.5% increase from current levels.

Supporting this narrative, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has risen, while the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio climbed to 4.73%, signaling growing optimism among holders. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator have shown rising momentum, suggesting buyers are gaining control. However, bears remain active: the RSI and MACD have confirmed strong selling pressure, and the price currently hovers near oversold territory, hinting at potential further consolidation.

On-Chain Metrics: Scarcity and Whale Accumulation

On-chain data reinforces the bullish case. SHIB's burn rate surged by 278% in a single day, removing over 15.2 million tokens and pushing the total burned supply past 410 trillion. This aggressive burn activity, coupled with a declining exchange-held supply, indicates reduced selling pressure and a tightening liquidity environment.

Whale behavior also paints a compelling picture. In November 2025, large holders transferred 5.12 trillion SHIB tokens into wallets- a 625% increase in inflows-reflecting institutional confidence. By December 2025, a single whale address was observed holding 124.4 billion SHIB with minimal outflows, underscoring strategic accumulation. Furthermore, a massive 50 billion SHIB exchange outflow in late 2025 suggests significant portions of the liquid supply are being removed from marketplaces, potentially for long-term holding.

Bullish vs. Bearish Forces: A Tug-of-War

While the technical and on-chain signals lean bullish, bearish headwinds persist. The Social Dominance metric for SHIB has plummeted to 0.032%, reflecting waning retail interest. Futures open interest on Bitmex has also hit a yearly low of $50,140, indicating reduced speculative activity. Meanwhile, SHIB's price remains below $0.000070, a level that could trigger renewed bearish momentum if not defended.

However, the recent wedge breakout and retest of key structural zones have shown resilience. Buyers have consistently defended the price without triggering heavy sell-side pressure, a sign of growing conviction. Analysts project that if SHIB flips the $0.0000099 resistance, it could rally toward $0.000014, with a more ambitious target of $0.00003343 (aligned with the December 2024 high) remaining on the table.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Setup with Caveats

The convergence of a maturing falling wedge, aggressive token burns, and whale accumulation creates a high-probability scenario for a bullish breakout. Yet, the broader market's mixed sentiment and lingering bearish indicators necessitate caution. For SHIB to achieve a 60–70% rally, it must first overcome $0.0000099 resistance and sustain momentum above $0.000010. If successful, the token could retest its 2024 highs, validating the pattern's full potential.

Investors should monitor key on-chain metrics-such as exchange outflows, burn rates, and whale activity-for further confirmation. While the technical case is compelling, the volatile nature of crypto markets means risks remain. As always, position sizing and stop-loss strategies are critical in navigating this dynamic environment.