Is Shiba Inu (SHIB) Poised for a 45% Rebound Amid Record Burn Rates and Key Support Levels?

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) token has long been a polarizing figure in the cryptocurrency market, oscillating between meme-driven hype and earnest utility-driven ambition. As of December 2025, SHIB is trading at $0.000007079, having dipped 1.4% in the past 24 hours, with critical support and resistance levels shaping its near-term trajectory. Meanwhile, record burn rates and ecosystem upgrades have sparked renewed debate about its potential for a 45% rebound. This analysis evaluates whether technical and fundamental catalysts align to justify such optimism.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Foundation

SHIB's price action remains constrained by its massive circulating supply of 589.24 trillion tokens, a structural headwind for any meaningful appreciation. Currently, the token is testing key support at $0.000006988, with a breakdown likely to trigger a slide toward $0.0000065. On the upside, resistance at $0.00000724 and $0.00000758 represents critical thresholds for bullish momentum.

According to technical analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 36.93 suggests a neutral-to-bearish bias, reflecting weak buying pressure and lingering bearish sentiment. For SHIB to reclaim a 45% rebound-targeting a price of approximately $0.0000101-it would need to first defend the $0.000006988 support level and then breach the $0.00000758 resistance. However, historical volatility and the token's susceptibility to broader market sentiment make this scenario contingent on external catalysts.

Burn activity has surged recently, with a 75.56% increase in the last 24 hours, including a notable 1 million SHIB burn. While this reduces supply and theoretically boosts scarcity, the sheer scale of SHIB's circulating supply (589.24 trillion tokens) limits the immediate impact of such burns. For context, even a 1% reduction in supply would require burning over 5.89 billion tokens-a feat far beyond current burn rates.

Fundamental Catalysts: Progress Amid Hurdles

The Shiba Inu ecosystem has made strides in 2025, though mixed results persist. Shibarium, the project's Layer 2 solution, remains a cornerstone of its utility narrative. Despite initial adoption challenges, the platform has introduced privacy-enhancing upgrades like Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) in collaboration with Zama, positioning Shibarium as a privacy-focused blockchain by Q2 2026. Additionally, the November 2025 RPC migration has decentralized infrastructure, addressing single points of failure and improving network resilience.

Security remains a concern, however. The September 2025 bridge exploit-resulting in a $4 million loss-highlighted vulnerabilities in the ecosystem. Post-incident, the team implemented multi-sig controls and validator key rotations, but trust rebuilding is an ongoing process.

According to exchange data, exchange outflows of 167.99B SHIB on December 31, 2025, suggest accumulation by long-term holders, a potential precursor to price stability. Furthermore, the ecosystem's multi-token model (SHIB, LEASH, BONE, TREAT) and governance initiatives like ShibDAO and the Karma System aim to transition SHIB from a meme coin to a utility-driven platform.

Challenges to a 45% Rebound

Despite these developments, several headwinds persist. The delayed launch of promised projects-such as the SHIB metaverse and marketplace-has eroded confidence in the team's execution. Additionally, the large circulating supply continues to dilute the effectiveness of token burns, with recent burn activity dropping significantly.

Market conditions also play a role. SHIB's price is highly correlated with broader crypto sentiment, and a lack of macroeconomic tailwinds could stifle any rebound. Analysts have projected a 2025 price range of $0.000008 to $0.000077, but these forecasts hinge on regulatory clarity and technological breakthroughs.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Path Forward

SHIB's potential for a 45% rebound hinges on a delicate balance of technical and fundamental factors. On the technical side, defending the $0.000006988 support level and overcoming resistance at $0.00000758 are prerequisites for bullish momentum. Fundamentally, the ecosystem's privacy upgrades, decentralization efforts, and multi-token utility model offer long-term promise but require time to materialize.

However, structural challenges-such as the massive supply and delayed utility projects-remain significant obstacles. For SHIB to achieve a 45% rebound, the token must not only hold key support levels but also demonstrate tangible progress in adoption and real-world use cases. Investors should monitor Shibarium's privacy features, the success of the FHE integration, and continued burn activity as critical indicators of future performance.

In the short term, SHIB remains a high-risk, high-reward asset. While the 45% rebound is theoretically possible, it demands a confluence of favorable technical conditions and robust fundamental execution-a scenario that remains uncertain in the current landscape.