Shiba Inu (SHIB): Is the Meme Coin's Burn-Driven Breakout a High-Probability Entry Point?

Technical and On-Chain Analysis: A Confluence of Bullish Signals

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme coin with a market cap of ~$12 billion, has entered a critical juncture in its price trajectory. After months of consolidation, the token appears poised for a breakout, supported by a combination of technical patterns, on-chain accumulation, and aggressive token burning. This analysis evaluates whether SHIB’s current setup offers a high-probability entry point for investors, leveraging both quantitative and qualitative insights.

Technical Setup: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

SHIB has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern since mid-2024, characterized by converging support and resistance levels. On July 15, 2025, the price broke above the upper trendline at $0.00001237, confirming a bullish reversal [2]. This breakout coincided with a surge in volume and a break above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key technical support level [4]. The pattern’s projected target price of $0.000015 aligns with historical resistance levels, suggesting a potential 22% upside from current levels.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently sits at 76.92, indicating overbought conditions [2]. However, this metric often lags during strong breakouts, and SHIB’s price resilience amid broader market weakness suggests institutional or whale-driven buying pressure.

On-Chain Accumulation: Whales and Burn Rate Dynamics

On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of accumulation. Whale activity has surged, with large holders moving over 768 billion SHIB tokens off exchanges in recent weeks [6]. This off-exchange accumulation—where tokens are transferred to cold wallets—signals long-term holding intent. Notably, 79% of SHIB holders are classified as long-term investors, and 74% of the supply is controlled by whales, reinforcing the token’s retail-heavy yet centralized structure [1].

The burn rate has also become a focal point. While recent 24-hour burn activity dropped 95% from the prior day to 69,679 tokens [1], this follows an explosive 201,207% surge in a single day in early August, during which 4.5 million tokens were destroyed [1]. This volatility highlights the token’s supply-reduction strategy, with nearly 40% of SHIB’s total supply already sent to the burn address. Analysts argue that such aggressive burning creates scarcity narratives, potentially driving demand [1].

Key on-chain indicators like the Realized Cap Impulse show early recovery, with speculative inflows approaching a positive threshold [1]. The MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) ratio of 30.89% suggests SHIB is nearing undervaluation territory, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) confirms rising accumulation [5]. These metrics collectively imply that SHIB is transitioning from a bearish to a neutral-to-bullish phase.

Bullish Projections and Ecosystem Catalysts

Analysts have highlighted multiple catalysts for SHIB’s potential breakout. Joao Wedson, a prominent crypto analyst, cites the Alpha Price metric, which projects a 125% price surge to $0.000025 [6]. Others point to ecosystem developments, including AI integration and growing community engagement, as drivers of utility and adoption [2].

Whale inflows have also spiked dramatically. In late August, a single cohort amassed 4.66 trillion SHIB tokens (~$64 million) as the price dipped from $0.000013 to $0.000012 [1]. This pattern mirrors historical accumulation phases, with some analysts drawing parallels to SHIB’s 2021 bull run [3].

Risk Considerations and the Path Forward

Despite these bullish signals, risks remain. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric indicates that 70% of SHIB wallets are still in a loss position [1], suggesting lingering retail caution. Additionally, SHIB’s overbought RSI and recent sideways movement in August highlight the need for patience. A sustained close above $0.000015 would validate the breakout, while a retest of the $0.000012 support level could offer a second entry opportunity.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Entry Point?

SHIB’s technical and on-chain fundamentals suggest a compelling near-term investment case. The symmetrical triangle breakout, combined with aggressive token burning and whale accumulation, creates a favorable risk-reward profile. While short-term volatility and overbought conditions warrant caution, the confluence of supply-side dynamics and ecosystem growth positions SHIB as a potential high-probability entry for investors with a medium-term horizon.

Source:
[1] Shiba Inu Whales Activity Surges: What It Means for SHIB Investors in 2025 [https://www.btcc.com/en-US/media/global-crypto-lens/shiba-inu-whales-activity-surges-what-it-means-for-shib-investors-in-2025]
[2] Shiba Inu (SHIB) Breaks 2025 Downtrend Amid AI Integration and Explosive Burn Rate Surge [https://blockchain.news/news/20250719-shiba-inu-shib-breaks-2025-downtrend-amid-ai-integration-and-explosive-burn-rate-surge]
[3] Shiba Inu Sees 300% Surge In This Major Metric, Is The Bottom In? [https://www.mexc.com/news/shiba-inu-sees-300-surge-in-this-major-metric-is-the-bottom-in/77665]
[4] SHIBA INU Price, SHIB Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap [https://www.coinbase.com/price/shiba-inu]
[5] Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Tests Resistance After 20% Dip [https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/shiba-inu-shib-price-resistance-after-dip-next-move-revealed/]
[6] Shiba Inu Price Prediction: SHIB Price Chart Signals Major Move Toward $0.000025 as Whale Inflows Surge 2,952% [https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/shiba-inu-price-prediction-shib-price-chart-signals-major-move-toward-0-000025-as-whale-inflows-surge-2952]