Is Shiba Inu's (SHIB) Second Growth Wave Real or Illusory?

The question of whether Shiba Inu (SHIB) is poised for a genuine second growth wave or merely riding a speculative illusion hinges on a nuanced interplay between on-chain fundamentals and the volatile forces of market hype. As of late 2025, SHIB's ecosystem has shown signs of structural resilience-most notably through whale accumulation, reduced exchange liquidity, and ecosystem development-while speculative drivers like influencer-driven narratives and social media sentiment remain a double-edged sword. This analysis dissects the evidence to determine whether SHIB's trajectory reflects a sustainable shift or a precarious bubble.

On-Chain Signals: Accumulation and Structural Resilience

SHIB's on-chain data reveals a quiet but consistent shift toward accumulation. The number of SHIB holders has grown from 1.46 million to 1.54 million, signaling a broadening base of ownership. More critically, whale activity has surged by 249% year-over-year, with large holders amassing significant portions of the supply. This trend is further reinforced by a 22% decline in SHIB tokens held on centralized exchanges, reducing immediate sell-side liquidity and suggesting a transition from speculative trading to long-term positioning.

According to tokenomics data, burn activity has removed 41.04% of SHIB tokens (410.40 trillion) through deflationary mechanisms. However, the token's utility remains constrained by its meme-based identity, with Shibarium-a layer-2 solution- processing over 1.5 billion transactions but maintaining a Total Value Locked (TVL) of just $1 million. This highlights a critical gap: while infrastructure exists, adoption has not yet translated into robust economic activity.

Speculative Hype: The Double-Edged Sword of Meme-Driven Momentum

SHIB's price action in 2025 has been heavily influenced by speculative forces. For instance, a 33.25 trillion SHIB token outflow from exchanges in a single 24-hour period initially raised hopes of whale consolidation, but the absence of a corresponding trading volume spike rendered the event ambiguous. Similarly, a 1567% surge in burn rate over 24 hours failed to catalyze a price rebound, underscoring the token's weak price elasticity.

Influencer activity has further muddied the waters. Joao Wedson of Alphractal predicted a 125% price surge for SHIB by 2025 using metrics like the Realized Cap Impulse, while other analysts forecasted a 500% rally. Yet Q4 2025 saw SHIB post losses of -15.2%, -16.2%, and -11.6% in October, November, and December, respectively, illustrating the fragility of hype-driven narratives. The token's price in November 2025 reached $0.00008982, a 672,896.52% all-time high, but this milestone was quickly overshadowed by broader market volatility.

Expert Analysis: Balancing Real Utility and Market Sentiment

Expert analyses reveal a divided perspective. On one hand, SHIB's on-chain metrics suggest a foundation for long-term viability. Shibarium's 1.5 billion transactions and 294,000 accounts demonstrate network participation, though its TVL remains a stark reminder of the ecosystem's early-stage status. On the other hand, metrics like the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicate that a significant portion of SHIB holders remain underwater, amplifying skepticism about its fundamentals.

The tension between utility and hype is further exemplified by competing tokens like Dawgz AI, which have attracted attention with AI-driven features and staking mechanisms. This shift in investor focus underscores the challenge SHIB faces in transitioning from a meme coin to a project with tangible use cases.

Conclusion: A Fragile Equilibrium

SHIB's second growth wave appears to rest on a fragile equilibrium between structural accumulation and speculative fervor. While on-chain data suggests a maturing ecosystem-marked by reduced exchange liquidity, whale dominance, and ecosystem development-the token's reliance on social media sentiment and influencer narratives remains a critical vulnerability. Shibarium's potential to enhance utility is promising, but its underwhelming TVL and technical hiccups highlight the gap between infrastructure and adoption.

For SHIB to achieve sustained growth, it must address its utility deficit and demonstrate meaningful adoption beyond speculative trading. Until then, its trajectory will likely remain a tug-of-war between market structure and hype-a dynamic that could either propel it to new heights or expose its inherent fragility.