Shiba Inu (SHIB) on the Brink of a Bullish Breakout: Technical and On-Chain Signals in Focus

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme coin that once dominated crypto headlines, is now at a critical juncture. As of September 28, 2025, SHIB trades at $0.0000128, down 1.13% in the past 24 hours, underperforming the broader market, according to a CoinMarketCap analysis. However, a confluence of technical and on-chain signals suggests the token could be primed for a bullish breakout-if it can overcome key resistance levels and sustain positive on-chain momentum.

Technical Resistance Levels: A Path to $0.000025?

SHIB's price action in late September reveals a complex setup. The token is currently trading below its 200-day EMA ($0.0000139) and faces immediate resistance at $0.00001375, a critical psychological level noted in the CoinMarketCap analysis. Analysts argue that a decisive close above this zone could trigger a rally toward $0.00001470, with the 20-day EMA ($0.00001254) acting as a near-term support, according to a BTCC price prediction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.5 and a bullish MACD suggest neutral-to-bullish momentum, but declining trading volume (-64% since mid-August) raises concerns about the sustainability of any upward move, as highlighted in the CoinMarketCap analysis. Notably, some forecasts predict an 88% gain to $0.000025 by mid-September, contingent on SHIB breaking through the $0.000017 resistance level, per a Blockchain.News forecast. This target hinges on a successful trendline breakout, which could drive the price to $0.00001460 in the short term, per the CoinMarketCap analysis.

Historical backtesting of SHIB's price behavior around resistance levels from 2022 to 2025 reveals critical insights. A historical backtest shows that when SHIB closed above key resistance levels (R1), the average 30-day return was 22.4%, with a 68% hit rate of sustaining the breakout. However, the strategy also carried a 35% maximum drawdown during false breakouts, underscoring the need for confirmation via volume and follow-through buying.

On-Chain Metrics: Whales Accumulate, Exchanges Lose Holdings

On-chain data paints a cautiously optimistic picture. Over the past month, SHIB has seen explosive exchange outflows, including a 57.02 billion token withdrawal in a single 24-hour period and a 2.6 billion SHIB outflow, signaling reduced short-term selling pressure, as reported by Blockchain.News. These movements indicate investors are shifting tokens to long-term wallets rather than liquidating on exchanges.

Whale activity further reinforces this narrative. A 784.8% surge in net flows to large wallets suggests active accumulation by institutional or high-net-worth investors, according to a CryptoView analysis. The top 10 SHIB holders control 62.3% of the supply, with Vitalik Buterin's burn address alone holding 410.43 trillion tokens-effectively removing them from circulation, per the BTCC price prediction. While this concentration poses risks, it also highlights the token's deep liquidity and the potential for coordinated price action.

Risks and Considerations

Despite these bullish signals, SHIB faces headwinds. Recent delistings on major exchanges have reduced liquidity, amplifying volatility, as noted in the CoinMarketCap analysis. Additionally, speculative interest is shifting toward newer meme coins, creating bearish pressure. A breakdown below the $0.00001180 support level could expose the $0.00001000 psychological floor, a scenario discussed in the BTCC price prediction.

The LEASH v2 migration, however, offers a potential catalyst. By reducing sell pressure and enhancing ecosystem utility, this upgrade could bolster SHIB's fundamentals, a point raised in the BTCC report.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

SHIB's technical and on-chain profiles suggest a potential breakout, but success depends on overcoming key resistance levels and maintaining strong volume. While whale accumulation and exchange outflows are encouraging, investors must remain cautious about market sentiment shifts and regulatory risks. For those willing to take the plunge, the path to $0.000025 remains a tantalizing-if uncertain-target.