Shiba Inu (SHIB) Under Bearish Pressure: Assessing Short-Term Risk and Long-Term Resilience

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme coin that once captured the imagination of retail investors, now finds itself under intense bearish pressure in November 2025. A confluence of technical indicators, macroeconomic headwinds, and mixed on-chain activity has created a challenging environment for bulls. Yet, beneath the surface, there are glimmers of resilience that warrant closer scrutiny. This analysis dissects the interplay of RSI levels, exchange flows, inflationary pressures, and investor sentiment to determine whether SHIB can weather the storm-or if further correction is inevitable before a potential rebound.

Technical Analysis: Oversold Conditions and Contradictory Signals

SHIB's 14-day RSI currently stands at 28.75, a level traditionally considered oversold and indicative of potential short-term rebound. According to MEXC analysts, SHIB has projected a 15% recovery to $0.00001139 within 4–6 weeks, citing the exhaustion of sellers as a catalyst. However, this optimism is tempered by conflicting data: another technical analysis from Investing.com shows the RSI at 35.635, still in bearish territory and signaling a "Strong Sell" outlook. Investing.com's analysis highlights the coin's precarious position at a technical crossroads.

Exchange inflows and outflows further complicate the picture. A 47 billion SHIB inflow onto exchanges in November 2025 suggests liquidity is being readied for potential selling, while Whale Alert reports a 207 billion SHIB outflow indicating panic selling or long-term hodling. The price has remained rangebound between $0.0000090–$0.0000093, below critical moving averages, and is forming a shallow ascending base-a pattern often associated with seller fatigue. TradingView's analysis notes the bearish narrative remains intact.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: Inflation and Risk-Off Sentiment

The broader macroeconomic environment is a significant drag on SHIB's prospects. The U.S. CPI surged 3.1% year-over-year in November 2025, the highest since May 2024. This inflationary pressure has kept the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts, dampening risk appetite across asset classes. Cryptocurrencies, particularly speculative tokens like SHIB, are especially vulnerable in such an environment.

Historically, SHIB has shown mixed performance in November, with notable gains in 2023 and 2024 but sharp declines in prior years. While past trends might hint at a seasonal rebound, the current macroeconomic backdrop-marked by elevated inflation and a risk-off market-poses a formidable barrier. SHIB's price is heavily influenced by speculative flows and liquidity, both of which are contracting in a bearish climate.

Investor Sentiment and On-Chain Metrics: A Tale of Two Narratives

SHIB's price hovers around $0.000010, with a circulating supply of 589 trillion tokens and a daily trading volume of $150–200 million. Recent reports indicate a stall in burn activity, raising concerns about inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, key on-chain metrics-exchange inflow, outflow, burned supply, and active addresses-show near-zero movement, signaling low conviction among investors.

Yet, there are signs of cautious optimism. SHIB has found temporary stability within an ascending channel, supported by levels at $0.0000076 and $0.0000083. Whale activity has increased, suggesting larger holders may be positioning for volatility. CCN's analysis notes that if bulls can push the price above $0.0000093, it could reignite interest. However, bearish pressure remains a critical risk.

Long-Term Resilience: Ecosystem Developments and Catalysts

SHIB's long-term survival hinges on its ecosystem's ability to deliver real-world utility. The Shibarium Layer-2 network, which has processed 1.5 billion transactions and hosts 294,000 accounts, is a step in the right direction. According to Xs.com, its Total Value Locked (TVL) of just $1 million underscores the need for broader adoption. Strategic partnerships and dApp integrations could serve as catalysts, but progress has been slow.

The coin's price is also tied to Bitcoin's (BTC) performance. Pintu's analysis notes that if BTC rebounds toward $100,000, it could create a more favorable environment for altcoins like SHIB. Conversely, a continued BTC slump would exacerbate SHIB's woes.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Risk and Opportunity

SHIB is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish forces and long-term resilience. Technically, the coin is in oversold territory but lacks the volume and conviction to break out. Macroeconomic headwinds, particularly inflation and a risk-off market, are amplifying downward pressure. On-chain metrics reflect stagnation, while whale activity hints at potential volatility.

For SHIB to survive this bearish phase, it must either rally above key resistance levels or receive a macroeconomic or ecosystem-driven catalyst. A rebound to $0.00001139 by December 2025 is plausible, but further correction to $0.0000076 remains a risk. Investors should monitor token burn activity, Shibarium's TVL growth, and BTC's trajectory as critical indicators of SHIB's path forward.

In the end, SHIB's story is a microcosm of the broader crypto market: volatile, speculative, and dependent on both technical execution and macroeconomic luck.