Shiba Inu's Path to Zero Removal: Is 2026 the Year of Recovery?

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem has long been a case study in the volatile nature of meme coins. As 2026 unfolds, the token's trajectory hinges on a delicate interplay between aggressive on-chain fundamentals and mixed technical momentum. With a 32% price surge in 2026 and a 131% spike in trading volume, SHIB has shown signs of recovery, but whether this momentum translates into sustained growth-or a return to zero-depends on a deeper analysis of its burn rate, wallet distribution, and technical indicators.

On-Chain Fundamentals: Burn Rate and Supply Dynamics

Shiba Inu's burn rate has been a defining feature of its 2025–2026 narrative. On January 1, 2026, SHIB experienced a staggering 10,731% surge in its burn rate over 24 hours, with 173 million tokens burned in a single transaction. This event reduced the circulating supply to 585.29 trillion SHIB, a critical milestone in its path to zero removal. Earlier, on October 16, 2025, a 222.84% burn rate increase eliminated 140.39 million tokens, further tightening supply.

These burns are tracked via Shibburn.com, which monitors token destruction through three special addresses, including dead wallets and the Genesis address. The cumulative effect of these events has been a 13% reduction in circulating supply since mid-2025, a metric that historically correlates with price resilience in high-volume tokens. However, the success of these burns depends on whether they outpace inflows from whale activity and exchange liquidity.

Wallet Distribution: Whale Dominance and Exchange Liquidity

Despite the bullish narrative around burns, SHIB's wallet distribution remains a double-edged sword. As of early 2026, top wallets-primarily crypto exchanges-hold nearly 63% of the total supply, with one wallet alone controlling 41% (valued at over $3.3 billion). This concentration of holdings suggests that large players have significant influence over price dynamics.

Whale activity has intensified in 2026, with transactions increasing by 111% compared to 2025. Santiment data highlights that this accumulation, rather than retail demand, drove a 13% price jump in late 2025. However, SHIB's on-exchange supply has declined from 88 trillion to 81 trillion tokens since June 2025, indicating sustained withdrawals and long-term holding behavior. While this could signal confidence in SHIB's future, it also raises concerns about liquidity constraints during market downturns.

Technical Momentum: RSI, MACD, and Price Patterns

From a technical perspective, SHIB's 2026 recovery has been modest but persistent. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 56.71, suggesting neutral-to-bullish momentum without overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains flat, reflecting a consolidation phase rather than a strong directional trend.

Price action reinforces this duality. SHIB has stayed above its 50-day moving average but below the 200-day average, indicating short-term recovery within a long-term bearish trend. On the 1-hour timeframe, the RSI at 58.02 hints at mild intraday bullish bias, though broader indicators like the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and ADX remain mixed. Analysts project an 11–37% upside potential, targeting $0.0000095 by February 2026, driven by bullish MACD momentum despite a neutral RSI.

However, the Fear & Greed Index at 26-a level indicating extreme fear-suggests that SHIB's upside is contingent on broader market rotation from Bitcoin and Ethereum into high-beta assets. A breakout above $0.0000087 (key resistance) would validate this thesis, while a breakdown below $0.00000849 could trigger a deeper correction.

Q4 2025: A Harsh Winter for SHIB

The final quarter of 2025 was brutal for SHIB, with a -37.3% total decline across October, November, and December. Monthly losses of -15.2%, -16.2%, and -11.6% respectively underscored the token's vulnerability to macroeconomic headwinds. Yet, some analysts argue that SHIB may be entering a consolidation phase, with a short-term target of $0.000008775 within seven days based on RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands.

Whale accumulation during this period- marked by a 111% surge in transactions-suggests that large holders view SHIB as undervalued. However, exchange liquidity remains a drag, as increased withdrawals reduce the float available for retail traders to influence price.

The Road Ahead: On-Chain Strength vs. Technical Caution

SHIB's path to zero removal in 2026 depends on two critical factors: 1) whether its burn rate can outpace whale accumulation and 2) whether technical indicators confirm a breakout from its $0.000008–$0.000009 range. The token's on-chain fundamentals are undeniably strong, with a 13% reduction in circulating supply and a 32% price gain in 2026. However, technical momentum remains mixed, with RSI and MACD signaling caution.

For SHIB to achieve meaningful recovery, it must overcome whale dominance and attract broader retail participation. A sustained move above $0.0000087 would validate bullish sentiment, while a breakdown below $0.00000849 could reignite bearish momentum. Investors should also monitor Bitcoin dominance and the Fear & Greed Index, as SHIB's performance is likely to mirror broader market sentiment.

In the end, SHIB's journey is a microcosm of the meme coin sector's volatility. While the token's burn rate and technical indicators offer hope, the path to zero removal remains fraught with uncertainty.