Shiba Inu's Cursed Zero Breakout: A Glimmer of Hope or a Deceptive Mirage?

The removal of Shiba Inu's (SHIB) "cursed zero" in late 2025-a psychological milestone where the token briefly dropped below $0.000010-has ignited a contentious debate among investors. While some view this as a catalyst for a short-term recovery, others argue it is a false breakout masking deeper structural weaknesses. By dissecting technical indicators, on-chain activity, and historical trends, this analysis evaluates whether SHIB's recent volatility signals a turning point or a delayed collapse.

The Cursed Zero: A Psychological and Technical Shift

In mid-October 2025, SHIB's price fell below $0.000010, stripping a decimal zero from its ticker and triggering bearish sentiment. This event, dubbed the "cursed zero," reinforced fears of a descent toward zero. However, by early November, the token rebounded above $0.0000105, a level that historically acted as a critical support according to data. This recovery coincided with optimism around the U.S. government shutdown resolution and a $1 trillion liquidity injection, which broadly boosted memecoins.

Technically, SHIB now faces resistance at $0.00001050. A breakout here could target $0.000013, but the token's fragility remains evident. The 14-day RSI stands at 40.97, signaling a neutral-bearish stance, while moving averages show nine sell signals versus three buys across MA5 to MA200 periods. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator hints at a potential positive crossover, with the RSI approaching a neutral 49, suggesting tentative bullish momentum. These conflicting signals underscore the market's indecision.

On-Chain Metrics: Burn Rate and Wallet Distribution

SHIB's tokenomics remain a double-edged sword. With a circulating supply of 589 trillion coins and a market cap of $5.7 billion, the project aims to burn 570 trillion tokens to reach $0.0003. However, the current burn rate-measured in billions monthly-is far from the trillions needed to meaningfully reduce supply. Mechanisms like Shibarium contribute minimally to this effort.

Wallet distribution also reveals vulnerabilities. Despite community-driven burn events, the Shiba Inu team and early investors still control a significant portion of the supply. This concentration raises questions about decentralization and long-term utility. While on-chain activity has increased-daily trading volume rose 26.48% to $168.8 million in November-this surge reflects speculative trading rather than fundamental demand.

Historical Precedents: Lessons from Past Breakouts

SHIB's recent price action mirrors patterns from 2023 and 2024, where November saw gains of 6.62% and 48.8%, respectively. However, 2025 has defied this trend, with the token plunging 2.44% in the same period according to analysis. This breakdown confirms a bearish reversal, exacerbated by Bitcoin's drop below $100k and leverage flushes in high-beta assets.

Historically, SHIB's attempts to break above key resistance levels have failed, leaving it range-bound since early 2025. For instance, the token's November 2025 low of $0.0000089-the lowest since January 2024-highlights its inability to sustain bullish momentum. While supporters argue a collapse to literal zero is improbable due to SHIB's liquidity structure, the market cap has shrunk to $5.67 billion from 2025 peaks above $25 billion, signaling eroding confidence.

The Verdict: False Dawn or Foundation for Recovery?

SHIB's removal of the cursed zero has sparked cautious optimism, but the evidence leans toward a false breakout. Technically, the RSI and MACD indicators remain in conflict, with bearish momentum dominating. On-chain metrics, including a sluggish burn rate and concentrated wallet distribution, further undermine long-term viability. Historically, the token has failed to sustain bullish trends, and its current price action aligns with a broader bear market.

That said, short-term traders might capitalize on the $0.00001050 resistance level, betting on a rebound to $0.000013. However, investors should remain wary of a breakdown below $0.0000090, which could retest yearly lows near $0.0000083 according to price analysis. For SHIB to transition from a speculative meme coin to a utility-driven asset, it must demonstrate meaningful progress in burn rates, ecosystem development, and decentralized governance. Until then, the cursed zero may remain a haunting specter.