Shiba Inu's Critical Support Level and Its Implications for a Potential Bullish Reversal

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is at a pivotal juncture in late September 2025, with its price hovering near a critical support level that could determine the next phase of its trajectory. Technical analysis and on-chain sentiment data reveal a complex interplay of bullish and bearish forces, offering both opportunities and risks for investors.

Technical Analysis: A Tipping Point at $0.00001177

The immediate focus for SHIB is its $0.00001177 support level, which has held firm since mid-August 2025 despite multiple testsSHIB Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000025 by September 2025^[1]. A breakdown below this level could trigger a 15% decline to $0.00001100, reigniting bearish momentum. Conversely, a sustained rebound above this support—combined with a breakout above the $0.00001380 resistance (aligned with the 200-day EMA)—could signal a bullish reversal. This level is critical because it represents a confluence of technical indicators: the 200-day EMA, a key trend-following tool, and a psychological price point where buyers have historically stepped inShiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction For September 19^[5].

The $0.000017 resistance zone is another inflection point. Analysts predict that a successful breach here could validate SHIB's long-term bullish case, with price targets extending to $0.000025 by year-endSHIB Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000025 by September 2025^[1]. However, this scenario hinges on SHIB first consolidating above $0.00001380.

Technical indicators remain mixed. The MACD shows bullish divergence, suggesting momentum could shift in favor of buyersSHIB Price Prediction 2025: Will Shiba Inu Hold Critical Support^[3], while the RSI on the 4-hour chart sits at 51, indicating neutral conditionsShiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction For September 19^[5]. Bollinger Bands show the price is not overextended, but on-chain data reveals $1.52 million in net outflows on September 18, signaling fragile demandShiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction For September 19^[5].

On-Chain Sentiment: Whales Accumulate, Retailers Hesitate

On-chain metrics paint a nuanced picture. The Fear & Greed Index for SHIB is at 48, reflecting neutral sentimentSHIB Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000025 by September 2025^[1], but this masks divergent behaviors between retail and institutional actors. Whale activity has surged, with 12 trillion SHIB moved to private wallets in August 2025 and a 1 trillion SHIB transfer to wallet "0x2CC8" in SeptemberSHIB Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000025 by September 2025^[1]. These movements suggest strategic accumulation by large holders, who are likely positioning for a potential breakout.

Exchange reserves have hit monthly lows, reducing short-term selling pressureShiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction For September 19^[5], and Shibarium's adoption—with daily transactions peaking at 3.2 million in March 2025—highlights growing utilitySHIB Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000025 by September 2025^[1]. However, the Shibarium hack in late August, which drained $2.4 million, tested the 200-day SMA at $0.00001297 and shook investor confidenceShiba Inu price prediction after the Shibarium Hack: critical support tested^[2]. This event underscores the token's vulnerability to security risks, a factor that could delay a bullish reversal.

Regulatory and Market Risks

Japan's proposed shift of crypto oversight to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act introduces regulatory uncertaintySHIB Price Prediction 2025: Will Shiba Inu Hold Critical Support^[3]. While SHIB's deflationary trajectory—bolstered by a 17.59% increase in burn rate in December 2023SHIB Price Prediction 2025: Will Shiba Inu Hold Critical Support^[3]—supports long-term optimism, near-term volatility is likely. Additionally, the NUPL metric (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) remains bearish, indicating a significant portion of SHIB holdings are still at a lossSHIB Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000025 by September 2025^[1].

Bullish Case: A Cup and Handle Pattern?

SHIB's price chart is forming a potential “cup and handle” pattern, a bullish continuation pattern that could materialize if the token holds above $0.000012Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction For September 19^[5]. This would require sustained buying pressure to defend key support zones like $0.00001177 and $0.00001310Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction For September 19^[5]. If successful, the pattern could drive SHIB toward $0.00001420–$0.00001450 in the short term and $0.000025 by mid-2026SHIB Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000025 by September 2025^[1].

However, historical data from 2022 to 2025 reveals critical limitations in relying on this pattern for SHIB. A backtest of confirmed Cup-and-Handle breakouts shows a cumulative loss of -50.4%, with an annualized return of -11.5% and a maximum drawdown of -63.5%Historical performance of Cup-and-Handle patterns on SHIB (2022–2025)^[4]. The pattern's average trade outcome was -15.8%, with no profitable exits under standard risk controlsHistorical performance of Cup-and-Handle patterns on SHIB (2022–2025)^[4]. These results highlight the pattern's poor performance in a prolonged bearish trend and high-volatility environment, where 20% stop-loss levels were frequently triggeredHistorical performance of Cup-and-Handle patterns on SHIB (2022–2025)^[4].

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

SHIB's next move will hinge on its ability to defend critical support levels and capitalize on whale-driven accumulation. Traders should monitor daily volume, RSI movements, and whale activity for signals of a reversal. While the bearish risk of a breakdown below $0.00001177 remains, the confluence of technical and on-chain bullish indicators—including a 228% surge in whale transactions and ecosystem upgrades—suggests a potential breakout is on the horizon.

Investors must balance optimism with caution, given regulatory headwinds and the lingering impact of the Shibarium hack. For now, SHIB is a coin at the crossroads: a successful rebound could reignite its rally, while a breakdown may prolong its consolidation phase.