Shiba Inu: Is the Bear Market Bottoming as Exchange Reserves Hit a 2-Year Low?

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem has long been a focal point for crypto investors seeking value in the meme coin space. As of November 2025, a confluence of on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggests that SHIB may be nearing a critical inflection point. With exchange reserves hitting a two-year low and price action consolidating around a historically significant support level, the question arises: Is the bear market bottoming for SHIB?

On-Chain Accumulation: A Sign of Investor Confidence

Exchange reserves-the amount of SHIB tokens held on centralized exchanges-have plummeted to 84.55 trillion tokens, valued at approximately $998 million, marking the lowest level since 2023. This decline reflects a shift in investor behavior, as holders increasingly transfer tokens to self-custody wallets or staking platforms. Such activity typically signals reduced short-term selling pressure and a transition into an accumulation phase.

Historically, shrinking exchange reserves have preceded price rallies in SHIB. For instance, during the 2023 bear market, a similar drop in exchange holdings coincided with a gradual price rebound in late 2024. Analysts like Zayn and SHIB Mortal argue that this pattern could repeat, with October 2025-dubbed "Uptober"-emerging as a potential catalyst for a bullish reversal according to market analysts. The current on-chain environment, therefore, aligns with conditions that have historically favored SHIB's price recovery.

Technical Validation: The $0.00001150 Support Level

While on-chain data provides a macro view of market sentiment, technical analysis offers granular insights into SHIB's near-term trajectory. The $0.00001150 level has repeatedly acted as a psychological and structural support for SHIB. As of June 2025, the token traded precisely at this level, with multiple consolidations and bounce patterns reinforcing its significance.

Crypto analysts highlight a "W-pattern" (double bottom) forming on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that buyers are stepping in aggressively at $0.00001150. This level also coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern according to technical analysis. Historically, SHIB has rebounded from this level to reach $0.000014 and $0.00001550 in March and April 2025, respectively as reported by market data. A successful defense of $0.00001150 could trigger a rally toward $0.000013, while a breakdown might push the price toward $0.00001050 according to price predictions.

The Path Forward: On-Chain and Technical Synergy

The interplay between on-chain accumulation and technical validation creates a compelling case for SHIB's potential reversal. Low exchange reserves indicate that retail and institutional investors are locking in SHIB, reducing the supply available for short-term dumping. Meanwhile, the $0.00001150 support level has withstood multiple tests, suggesting strong buyer interest.

However, risks remain. If SHIB fails to hold above $0.00001150, the next support levels at $0.00001064 and $0.00000986 could become critical battlegrounds. Conversely, a breakout above the descending resistance trendline-currently around $0.00001250-could ignite a broader bullish momentum.

Conclusion

Shiba Inu's current on-chain and technical landscape presents a nuanced picture. The two-year low in exchange reserves and the robust defense of the $0.00001150 support level suggest that SHIB may be entering a phase of accumulation and potential reversal. While the bear market is not definitively over, the alignment of these indicators offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for investors willing to monitor key price levels and on-chain trends. As the crypto market approaches year-end, SHIB's performance could hinge on whether buyers continue to defend this critical support or if sellers regain control.