SHIB's Reserve Slide: A Boon for the Future or a Short-Term Blow?

Centralized exchanges are on the brink of losing their 82 trillion SHIB reserve threshold, signaling a dramatic shift in the dynamics of Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme-based cryptocurrency. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, SHIB exchange reserves have dwindled to approximately 81.2 trillion tokens, with a net outflow of -81.2 billion SHIB recorded over the past 24 hours. This rapid exodus suggests investors are either accumulating tokens for long-term holding or selling amid a declining price environment.

The price of SHIB, currently trading at $0.0000096, has fallen more than 5% in a single day, compounding concerns about liquidity. Technically, the token is showing signs of weakness: it has rejected key moving averages and sits with an RSI below 40, indicating growing bearish momentum. Analysts warn that if exchange-held SHIB dips below 81 trillion, liquidity for short-term trading could tighten, potentially increasing volatility. Such a scenario could create a paradox—reducing supply on exchanges might prove bullish in the long run but could exacerbate short-term instability.

As reported by U.Today, volume profiles further underscore the token's fragility. Trading activity on major exchanges has plummeted, with volume declining over 60% since early October. SHIB has been trapped in a narrow consolidation range for weeks, failing to attract significant retail or institutional buying. The token's price is now well below critical resistance levels at $0.0000113 and $0.0000128, with the next immediate support line at $0.0000090. A break below this could push SHIB toward $0.0000075, levels not seen since mid-2025.

Despite the bearish indicators, some analysts argue a potential turnaround is on the horizon. A recent surge in token burns—up 1,993% in a single week—has removed over 10 million SHIB from circulation, reducing supply and potentially supporting long-term value. Additionally, the first U.S. Shiba Inu ETF, filed by T. Rowe Price, has sparked optimism about institutional adoption. A BraveNewCoin price prediction also highlights global liquidity trends, including an 8% year-to-date expansion in M2 money supply, which align with historical patterns that have preceded altcoin rallies.

However, the market remains divided. While some see the current outflows as a precursor to accumulation, others view them as a sign of exhaustion. Bitget reports that SHIB holds at $0.00000998, with traders closely watching support at $0.000009927 and resistance at $0.00001042. Momentum indicators like RSI (40.73) and MACD remain neutral to bearish, reflecting cautious sentiment.

The coming weeks will be critical. If SHIB can break above $0.00001042 and sustain gains, it may test higher resistance levels at $0.0000111 and $0.0000129. A successful breakout could position the token for a rally toward $0.0000176, aligning with broader macroeconomic trends. Conversely, continued outflows and weak volume could cement SHIB's status as a speculative asset with limited liquidity.