SHIB: Is the Meme Coin on the Brink of a 30% Breakout?

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the once-dominant meme coin, has long been a subject of speculation. As of November 2025, the token appears to be teetering on the edge of a potential reversal, with technical and on-chain signals offering a mixed but intriguing narrative. While bearish fundamentals persist, key support levels and structural shifts in holder behavior suggest SHIB could be primed for a short-term rebound-or a deeper consolidation phase.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Support Test

SHIB's price action over the past week has drawn attention to its critical support level at $0.058472, a multi-year trendline that has historically acted as a psychological floor for the token, as noted in a Cryptonewsland analysis. Analysts are closely watching whether buyers can push SHIB above the immediate resistance at $0.059248, a breakout that could signal renewed bullish momentum, per that same Cryptonewsland analysis. However, the short-term outlook remains cautious. The SHIB/USDT pair has shown a bearish MACD crossover, and the RSI is hovering near oversold conditions at 32, indicating weak momentum but no clear reversal signal, as Coinotag reports.

The token's position below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages further underscores bearish control, with the 200-day line acting as a stubborn resistance, according to Coinotag. Yet, the weekly chart reveals a descending wedge pattern and a MACD trend that has been gradually rising since mid-2023, suggesting diminishing bearish pressure over the long term, as Coinotag reports. This divergence between short-term and medium-term indicators creates a paradox: SHIB's price is trapped in a bearish cage, but its broader structure hints at a potential breakout.

On-Chain Signals: Mixed Messages from Holders

On-chain data paints a more complex picture. While SHIB's price surged 8.71% in a single day to $0.00001009, exchange inflows have spiked by 2.2% to 146 billion tokens, and net outflows have ballooned to 435 billion tokens, according to a Coinotag analysis. These metrics suggest that large holders-often referred to as "whales"-are capitalizing on short-term gains, a pattern historically linked to price corrections of 5–10% within days, as that Coinotag analysis notes. The surge in exchange inflows also contradicts the bullish price momentum, signaling heightened selling activity.

Conversely, the token's quarterly on-chain activity reveals a near-complete stagnation in exchange outflows, with netflows flatlining at 73.5 billion tokens, as noted in a TradingView report. This lack of movement indicates a market in limbo, where neither bulls nor bears are actively accumulating or dumping SHIB. Meanwhile, token burning rates have plummeted by 85% to 1.6 million tokens per day, a sharp decline from previous months, as TradingView notes. While token burns reduce supply, their impact on price is negligible without concurrent demand growth-a challenge SHIB has yet to overcome.

Structural Reversal or False Dawn?

The question of a potential 30% breakout hinges on whether SHIB can convert its technical support test into a sustained rally. Historically, tokens that form descending wedge patterns and break above key moving averages often experience sharp rebounds. However, SHIB's on-chain data tells a different story: rising exchange inflows and stagnant outflows suggest a lack of conviction among large holders, who are more likely to sell than accumulate, per the Coinotag analysis.

Retail accumulation also remains muted. Despite SHIB's meme coin status, there is no evidence of significant retail buying or whale accumulation in November 2025, unlike altcoins such as Litecoin (LTC) or Pi Network (PI), which have seen strategic whale activity, as Coinotag reports. This absence of retail-driven demand weakens the case for a broad-based reversal.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

SHIB's technical setup offers a tantalizing possibility: a 30% breakout if buyers defend the $0.058472 support and push above $0.059248. However, the on-chain data-particularly the surge in exchange inflows and declining burn rates-casts doubt on the sustainability of such a move. For now, SHIB appears trapped in a structural stalemate, where technical indicators and holder behavior are at odds.

Investors should treat any short-term rebound as a high-risk trade, contingent on increased buying volume and a shift in whale sentiment. Until SHIB demonstrates stronger on-chain conviction or ecosystem growth, its price action will likely remain a tug-of-war between bearish fundamentals and fleeting bullish hope.