Sherwin-Williams Slides 1.81% In Two Sessions As Bearish Signals Intensify

The Sherwin-Williams (SHW) declined 0.33% in the latest session to close at $330.88, marking two consecutive down days with a cumulative 1.81% decline. Trading volume for the session registered 1.75 million shares, marginally above the recent average, suggesting sustained distribution pressure at current levels.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a bearish continuation pattern, with the last two sessions forming consecutive red candles near July’s swing low of $329.48. This level now serves as critical near-term support, as a decisive break could accelerate selling. Resistance is evident near $340 – the July 24 high – where multiple failed rallies occurred. The July 22 session merits attention, featuring a long upper wick (high: $341.18, close: $340.07) that established a distribution zone between $340-$347.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration reflects entrenched bearish momentum. Current price trades substantially below the 50-day SMA (~$345), 100-day SMA (~$352), and 200-day SMA (~$360), confirming a long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA’s bearish crossover below the 200-day SMA ("death cross") in late 2024 remains active. Recent bounces have consistently failed near the declining 50-day SMA, reinforcing its role as dynamic resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows the signal line stubbornly above the MACD line in negative territory, corroborating bearish momentum. However, the histogram’s diminishing negative slope suggests weakening downside acceleration. KDJ (9,3,3) readings are deeply oversold, with %K (11.8) and %D (15.2) both below 20. While this may indicate exhaustion, KDJ has remained depressed for ten sessions, reflecting persistent bearish control. Any bullish reversal would require %K to convincingly cross above %D with accompanying volume.
Bollinger Bands
Price hugs the lower Bollinger Band ($329) with bands expanding moderately, signaling elevated near-term volatility. This "walking the band" structure typically denotes sustained directional momentum. A close above the lower band could precede a mean-reversion bounce toward the 20-day middle band ($335), but the primary trend favors continuation. Band expansion following the July 22 volatility spike confirms bearish continuation validity.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis reveals bearish confirmation. Down days (July 30-31) saw above-average volume (1.54M and 1.75M shares), while up days registered below-average participation (e.g., July 29 volume: 1.52M). The July 22 distribution spike (3.9M shares) established a high-volume resistance ceiling. Current volume trends validate the downtrend’s sustainability, with no accumulation patterns detected.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 32, nearing oversold territory (<30). While this hints at potential exhaustion, the RSI has failed to surpass 45 during recent corrective bounces – a hallmark of bear trends. Bullish divergence is absent, as RSI’s July 30 low (28) aligns with the price’s lower low. Caution is warranted, as RSI can remain oversold during powerful downtrends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend swing high ($400.42 on Nov 27, 2024) and swing low ($329.48 on July 31, 2025), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($333.90), 38.2% ($341.40), and 50% ($347.25). Current price positions near the swing low, making $333.90 an immediate upside hurdle. Confluence exists here with Bollinger’s middle band and the July 28 low ($334.32), creating a significant resistance zone.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals is dominant: oversold KDJ readings lack bullish confirmation from volume or MACD, price trades below all key MAs, and resistance clusters at $333.90-$335 (Fibonacci 23.6% + Bollinger middle band). The sole constructive signal is RSI’s proximity to oversold territory, but this lacks corroboration. No material divergences exist between price and oscillators, reducing the probability of imminent reversal. Should $329 support fail, the next structural support resides near the May 2025 swing low ($325).