Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) Market Overview: 2025-09-22

• Price declined from 0.3845 to 0.3405, with oversold RSI and bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked during the 04:45–05:45 ET session, followed by a sharp pullback.
• Volume was highest during the 06:15–06:30 ET sell-off but failed to confirm new lows.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the 04:45 ET breakout, followed by expansion.
• No clear bullish candlestick patterns emerged, but bearish engulfing patterns appeared during the selloff.

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3743 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3481 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.3845 and a low of 0.3405 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 6,803,209.1, and notional turnover amounted to $2,487,119. The market showed a bearish bias with strong downward momentum in key sessions.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below a key support at 0.3700 after a bearish engulfing pattern formed at 04:45 ET. A 0.3481 low marked a potential oversold area on the RSI, though no immediate reversal signals emerged. A 0.3613–0.3573 consolidation in the 09:30–10:00 ET session showed indecision but failed to generate a meaningful bullish reversal. Resistance levels appear to be 0.3560, 0.3600, and 0.3700, while support levels sit at 0.3405 and 0.3450.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed price closing below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart crossed below the 100-period and 200-period moving averages, forming a potential death cross. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests further downside risks unless buyers emerge to push price above 0.3560.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remained below the signal line, supporting the bearish bias. RSI hit an oversold reading of 26.5 at 0.3481 but failed to trigger a strong bounce. This suggests potential for a short-term rebound but does not confirm a trend reversal. Divergences between volume and price were noted during the 06:15–06:30 ET selloff, where high volume did not drive new lows, hinting at potential exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp contraction before the 04:45 ET breakout, followed by a rapid expansion as price dropped to 0.3481. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting continued oversold conditions. If the lower band breaks below 0.3405, this could signal a stronger bearish phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 06:15–06:30 ET sell-off and again at 04:45–05:45 ET, but neither session produced a new low, raising questions about the sustainability of the bearish momentum. Turnover also spiked during these hours, reinforcing the intensity of selling pressure. A divergence in volume and price during these periods could indicate a short-term reversal if buyers step in above 0.3450.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed resistance at 0.3560 (61.8%) and 0.3600 (50%), while support is expected at 0.3450 (38.2%). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.3530, which may act as a near-term resistance if the pair begins to consolidate.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions when price breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a RSI reading above 50. Stop-loss levels would be placed above the 50-period MA or near key Fibonacci resistance, while take-profit targets align with the 38.2% to 61.8% retracement levels. Given the current technical environment, this strategy may offer favorable risk-reward ratios if price remains below 0.3560.